IOWA HAWKEYES @ #14 OKLAHOMA SOONERS
American Football : North America : NCAAF
Friday, December 30th, 2011, 10:00PM US
(3:00AM GMT)

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PREVIEW

Let me tell you something, if Oklahoma needed this game to get to the Championship game, they would be 14 points ahead at HT and possibly further by the final whistle.

But that isn't the situation.

Oklahoma (9-3, 6-3 Big 12) is seriously bummed to be here and quite frankly, no one would mind if the game had to be cancelled. You see, Oklahoma, who had title game aspirations, is having to play this Insight Bowl game in Arizona because they finished 9-3. And this isn't even a BCS Bowl game, something that hasn't happened very often in recent years for Oklahoma.

Oklahoma were ranked 1st until getting upset by Texas Tech at the end of October. They recovered from this blow, but only just, and then Baylor beat them to end their chances of competing for the National title. The injuries suffered by the team were too much and as I wrote back at the start of the month, despite the team having an excellent QB in Landry Jones, the loss of top WR Ryan Broyles and RB Dom Whaley would be too much.

Those two players had almost 1,800 yards between them and 19TDs. I used these as part of my reasoning for backing Oklahoma State to beat the Sooners by more than the 3.5 point spread. Oklahoma got destroyed 44-10. That is how this team ended the regular season.

What about Iowa? The Iowa Hawkeyes (7-5, 4-4 Big Ten) finished the regular season with a 7-5 mark and will be happy at the chance of a massive scalp to end the season.

And looking at the QB stats - Iowa have a chance of keeping this close. While the Sooner's Jones has thrown for 4,302 yards, almost 1,500 yards more than Iowa QB Vandenberg, it is the TD and INT numbers that stand out for me. Vandenberg threw 23 TD passes this season, only 5 less than Jones.

More crucially, he got picked just 6 times, while Jones threw the ball to the opposition 14 times. In fact, Jones did not have a TD through his last 2 games, but he did get intercepted 5 times in that time!

One could point at the absence of Marcus Coker, as Iowa has suspended their star rusher. however, with Oklahoma decent against the run, I think this is being overadjusted for. Vandenberg will badly want to outshine his opposite number, and he is well placed to do so against an Oklahoma pass defence that is allowing 12.5 yards per completion!

Iowa has been the underdog in 2 of their last 3 bowl games. Guess what, they won all three outright.

BETTING VERDICT

This is a serious anti-climax for Oklahoma, who know they are better than this and should be in a bigger game against a more high-profile team. Iowa are psyched to be here and will relish the chance of ending the season with a win against a team that could well have been competing for the National title.

Expect a huge effort from Iowa throughout the game, and even if they are losing by more than 2 scores late on, you can expect them to give it their all to keep the score as close and respectable as possible.

The Pick :

Iowa +14

HANDICAP BETTING :

Take Iowa +14 @ 1.95 (Pinnacle)