Denver Broncos @ New England Patriots
United States: NFL Divisional Round
Saturday 14 January 2012 - Kick Off 8pm ET
1am (British Standard Time)

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Preview

The New England Patriots (13-3) must have felt a little better last weekend when they saw the Denver Broncos (9-8) knock of the reigning AFC Champions, the Pittsburgh Steelers, and ensure it is the Broncos who are visiting Foxboro for this Play Off game.

It might be the easier match on paper, but the Patriots will have some demons to exorcise as they have not won a Play Off game in 4 years, while the last two seasons has seen them lose their first Play Off games, both at home, against the Baltimore Ravens and the New York Jets.

Denver themselves will feel there is nothing to lose as not many people tipped them to beat the Steelers outright and they had come into the Play Offs on a 3 game losing run where Tim Tebow had really struggled. However, they should have learned something from when the teams met in the regular season in Denver as to how they can compete with the Patriots.

The Broncos will look to run the ball down the Patriots throat, just as they did the first time the teams met. On that occasion, the Broncos racked up 167 yards in the first quarter and I think New England will have a tough time dealing with that again as they will have seen Denver passing the ball successfully against Pittsburgh last week.

Even if New England back off a little, it will just give Denver more opportunity to run the ball and that could be a problem for the Patriots in this game. Denver will be able to control the clock and try and keep Tom Brady off the field. Unlike Pittsburgh, New England have a porous Secondary anyway, so they will not be able to send more men into the box to cover the run or they will be punished through the air.

Either through the air or on the ground, I don't think Denver will have too many problems moving the chains against this New England team in this game.

On the other side of the ball, I expect New England are going to be able to score plenty of points themselves, especially considering who is the QB of this team. Tom Brady punished Denver in the first game and the likes of Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez create big match up problems for any Defense. Denver will need their pass rush to get to Brady and at least try to rattle the QB- teams that have done that in the past have had some success against the Patriots and their Offense.

I expect the Patriots will try to negate that pass rush by mixing in plenty of runs to go with their passes. I expect they will be able to keep the chains moving in this way as the Broncos are allowing 4.3 yards per carry and that should at least give New England the opportunity to pass the ball around.

Head to Head

New England beat Denver by 18 points at Mile High earlier this season, covering the 7.5 point spread in the process.

They last met here in 2008 with the Patriots finishing as the 34 point winners in a blowout as the 3 point favourites.

New England are just 3-6 against the spread in their last 9 games against the Broncos.

New England are 9-7 against the spread this season, Denver are 8-9.

New England are 8-6-1 against the spread as the favourites, Denver are 6-4 as the underdog.

Other Interesting Trends

New England are 3-14 against the spread in their last 17 games as the home favourite of 10.5 points or more.

They have lost their last 6 games against the spread in the Play Offs.

Denver have won their last 4 games against the spread as the road underdog.

Prediction

I am going to back the Denver Broncos with a big start for the following reasons:

First, if Denver can steer clear of turnovers, they should be able to match the Patriots for points and keep this game close. The first game saw New England win by 18 points, but 3 second quarter fumbles allowed the Patriots to get away in that game.

Second, New England have really struggled as being the big home favourite in recent games.

Third, teams that are coming in on a 5 game winning run are just 1-7 against the spread as the home favourites in the Play Offs.

Fourth, Denver are just being underestimated in this game and will be able to play without the expectations on their shoulders that will be on New England who have lost their last 2 Play Off games at home.

The Statistics :

The Pick :

New England Patriots 31-28 Denver Broncos

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

I'll back the Denver Broncos +14 Points @ 1.92