Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots
United States: NFL Divisional Round
Sunday 22 January 2012 - Kick Off 3pm ET
8pm (British Standard Time)

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Preview

The New England Patriots (14-3) played in a completely dominating fashion last week as they dismantled the Denver Broncos, although I do have a few question marks with the way the Broncos played on both sides of the ball. Tom Brady looked in special form, playing so confidently that he even got to PUNT the ball in the second half, something that doesn't leave a good taste in the mouth.

This week they entertain the Baltimore Ravens (13-4) in the AFC Championship Game in a game that Vegas have effectively decided will be a blowout judging by the TD head start they are giving the visiting team. Baltimore's Defense played well last week, but they were not as dominant as they could have been, while the Offense played a very lethargic game.

Ed Reed effectively called out Joe Flacco and indicated that he has to up his game if the team are going to have any chance of winning this game and I agree with him to an extent. Flacco had chances to make the throws to receivers that were being covered one on one and he may have the opportunity to do so again this week.

That is down to the fact that he has Ray Rice in the backfield and the Patriots will know all about him after Rice shredded them in the Play Offs a couple of seasons ago. It is possible to find room to move the ball on the ground as the Patriots are giving up 4.5 yards per carry this year, and Denver did have success until they fell too far behind and were forced to throw the ball.

I also expect the running game will give Flacco a chance to throw the ball downfield off of play-action and also when his receivers are single covered. He will be hoping that the Offensive Line can deal with the pass rush better than they did last week against Houston, but I do expect an improvement on the 5 sacks he took as long as the Patriots are not too far ahead.

New England's Secondary can definitely be exposed and I think the Ravens will have success scoring points. The question is whether they have enough to stop Brady and the Patriots.

It is common knowledge in the NFL that the only way to really defend against Brady, and most elite QBs, is to get in their faces and force them to make mistakes or release the ball much quicker than they have wanted to. Last week, the Offensive Line did a great job in giving Brady time, and it will be up to the Ravens to devise schemes to get their pass rush going.

Baltimore have struggled in their recent games to do that, failing to get to TJ Yates once last week even though they recorded 48 this season and they have to get something going or this is only going to end badly for them. Terrell Suggs has had a storied career against the Patriots and he could be the key to the whole game.

I expect New England will have some success through the air regardless, but it will at least slow Brady down a touch if he is put on the ground a few times and may also lead to the all-important turnovers. However, the likes of Aaron Hernandez, Wes Welker and Rob Gronkowski will not be stopped completely.

The Ravens have been stout against the run all season, although they were gashed by Arian Foster last week, but I still expect they will be able to shut down the running game that the Patriots try to generate. It will be interesting if they continue to use Hernandez from the backfield as they did last week, or whether that was something they noticed when scheming for the Broncos. Regardless, the running game will be there to keep Baltimore honest so it will be key for the Ravens to get pressure on Brady from their front 4 rather than being forced to commit more men out of coverage.

Head to Head

New England and Baltimore have been involved in some really tight, memorable battles in recent seasons including in the Play Offs here and a game in Baltimore during the Patriots unbeaten regular season in 2007.

The last 3 meetings have all taken place in Foxboro with New England winning 2 and losing 1. They have split these games 1-1-1 against the spread.

Both teams are 2-2-1 against the spread when they have met each other during the Tom Brady era.

New England are 10-7 against the spread this season, Baltimore are 8-8-1.

The Patriots are 9-7 against the spread as the favourites, Baltimore are 1-0 as the underdog.

Other Interesting Trends

New England improved to 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 games as the favourite in the Play Offs.

They are 16-7 against the spread in their last 23 games as the home favourite of between 3.5 and 10 points.

Baltimore are only 5-14 against the spread in their last 19 games as the road underdog being given between 3.5 and 10 points.

They are 5-1-1 against the spread in their last 7 games against a team with a winning record.

Prediction

I have been hoping beyond hope all week that I would see the Baltimore Ravens given more than a TD head start in this game, but alas it is not to be. I still like the Ravens to cover the spread for the following reasons:

First, I think Baltimore are being under-rated because of a poor performance last week and New England are being a tad over-rated based on their one game with Denver. While the Pats Defense looked good last week, I still think teams can score points against them.

Second, Baltimore will thrive in being the underdog as the Harbaugh brothers both seemingly like these spots. John Harbaugh will fire up his team as they are being disrespected with everyone writing them off, and I think he gets a positive reaction.

Third, there are a couple of trends that I really like that favour the Patriots; (a) teams that score 40 or more points in the Play Offs are just 3-19 against the spread in their next game (New Orleans made that 0-1 this season).
(b) Teams that have won by 21 points or more are 4-9 against the spread in their next game.
(c) Teams that are favoured by 7 or more in the Championship Game are 3-7 against the spread.

Fourth, Baltimore have played the Patriots close in their last 3 games at Foxboro, including winning a Play Off game here, and I think they will generate enough to do the same this week.


The biggest mistakes Baltimore will make is turning the ball over and falling into a big hole early. This will force them to move away from the running game that could create long drives and chew up the clock, and will also mean their best Offensive player, Ray Rice, will not have his hands on the ball enough.

The Statistics :

The Pick :

New England Patriots 27-24 Baltimore Ravens

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

I'll back the Baltimore Ravens +7 Points @ 1.95