BRIGHTON v NEWCASTLE UNITED
Football : England : FA Cup
Saturday, January 28th, 2012, 5:15PM GMT

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PREVIEW

Newcastle have done very, very well this season. Their cracking start means they sit 6th at the moment, far away from the troubles the bottom half of the table brings.

Newcastle are not going to win the league title though, neither are they going to finish in the top 4 and a champions league spot. So, this is the Geordies best chance of a trophy and I think they will try seriously to progress to the next round.

The lack of their two main goalscorers means this is a weakened Newcastle offence that Brighton will face. The defence has been very good this year, so against lower league opposition I expect Newcastle's backline to put up a decent show. I'm obviously not reading too much into the 5 goals they allowed at Fulham recently, as that looked like a one-off that will certainly not be repeated here.

Brighton will be hard to beat, seeing as the Championship side are without defeat in their last 5 matches, where they have won 4. Gus Poyet has already seen his side beat another club from the same neighbourhood at Newcastle, Sunderland, this season and at almost 4.00, Brighton are tremendous value at home as they might just nick it by the odd goal.

What sticks out for me is the recent defensive record of Brighton when playing at home. The seaside club have allowed just 3 goals in their last 8 home games! They have impressive home wins to nil against Bristol City, 2-0, and Southampton, 3-0.

BETTING VERDICT

This game is live on ESPN but I doubt you'll see an exciting match as goals look hard to come by.

I'll take the Under in this one and go do something other than watch.

The Pick :

Under 2.5 goals

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

Take Under 2.5 goals @ 1.90 (Pinnacle)