Italian Serie A
2012-01-29 - Genoa vs Napoli
A Sports Betting Pick by ROzsolt
Football: Seria A
Venue: Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Genoa
Sunday 29th January – Kickoff time: 15:00 GMT+1
Genoa (11th W-7 D-3 L-9)
Genoa’s improvised defense failed to deliver a quality performance on their previous game against Palermo and despite top scorer Palacio put his team ahead early in the match, Genoa ended up conceding 5 goals and losing the game, which is their third consecutive loss on the road.
Two weeks ago however it was the other way around, when visitors Udinese took the lead, Genoa pulled off an impressive second half comeback and goals from Granqvist, Jankovic and Palacio secured the victory.
The most common thing about Genoa’s latest performances is that there are always plenty of goals scored when they are involved in a game. In fact, on their last 5 games no less than 26 goals were scored, 17 of them being conceded by Genoa.
Antonelli, Bovi and Dainelli are still recovering after injuries, while Marco Rossi is suspended, but there is good news as well for the defense, Kaladze taking his spot back in the center of Genoa’s defense.
Probable Genoa line-up :
Mesto, Granqvist, Kaladze, Moretti
Biondini, Seymour, Kucka
Palacio, Gilardino, Jankovic
Napoli (7th W-7 D-8 L-4)
A little more than a month ago Napoli hammered Genoa at Stadio San Paolo, causing their today’s hosts the most severe defeat of the season (6-1).
Mazzarri’s men dominated the entire match and took advantage of the huge spaces from Genoa’s defense allowing Cavani (2), Hamsik, Pandev, Gargano and Zuniga to put their names on the board.
Napoli is not doing very well on the road this season, registering lots of draws and only winning one of their last six fixtures. The Partenopei scored in all of their last 5 away games, but so did the hosts, 3 of those games finishing undecided, 1-1.
Napoli has no missing players for this match so I expect them to go for all three points here in order to keep up with the top pack. With Cavani, Lavezzi, Pandev and Hamsik in front, I think that Mazzarri’s intentions are quite clear.
Probable Napoli line-up :
Campagnaro, Cannavaro, Aronica
Maggio, Hamsik, Gargano, Dossena
Lavezzi, Pandev
Cavani
The Betting Verdict
Genoa only lost to the two teams from Milano when playing at home this season, but they will receive the visit of the team that outclassed them not so long ago, so I am not sure that they can keep those losses to two.
Genoa should score in this one as the attack seems to be their strongest compartment, with the likes of Gilardino, Palacio and Jankovic. Another argument would be that Napoli was not able to keep a clean sheet in any of their last 9 Seria A games.
On the other hand, having the third worst defense from the league with 34 goals conceded in 19 games may put them in difficulty against Napoli, a team that can easily create chances and has excellent finishers.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Genoa 1-2 Napoli
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take Over 2.5 goals at 2.00 at LadbrokesConfidence: 8/10
