English Premier
2012-09-29 - Reading vs Newcastle United
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: English Premier League
Saturday 29 September 2012 - Kick Off 3pm
Reading
Sometimes it can take a result in a Cup competition to get a side kick-started in the League and that is what Reading will be hoping for as they return home to the Majedski Stadium. Brian McDermott had been upset at the manner of their defeat in the last two League games, but the 2-3 win at Queens Park Rangers in the Cup should have boosted confidence.
Reading are currently bottom of the Premier League having picked up 1 point from their opening League games, although they do also have an extra game in hand compared to most of the rest of the League. They are 0-1-1 at home so far this season, scoring 2 goals and conceding 4 although Reading have recorded a 3-2 win over Peterborough United in the Capital One Cup here.
The side have lost 3 straight Premier League games, although they have played the likes of Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur in that time. The last loss at West Brom was probably the most disappointing as the Baggies could have won far easier than the 1-0 scoreline indicated. Reading had been unbeaten in 11 home games in all competitions before the loss to Spurs, although they have now won just 1 in 4.
Adam Federici was dropped earlier this season and remains out of the side, while Jason Roberts could return from injury. That means Brian McDermott will have a full squad to choose from.
Newcastle United
It has been a mixed start to the new season for Newcastle United who now have the additional commitments of playing in Europe to negotiate. Alan Pardew also is trying to keep some of the bigger egos massaged with Demba Ba complaining about his status in the squad and there are some suggestions that Ba will be moving on in January despite his goals as he still has a buy-out clause in his contract.
Newcastle are 10th in the Premier League with 8 points earned from a possible 15 to open the new season. That means they are still in touch with the leading sides in the League, although they have to improve their 0-1-1 away form. Newcastle have scored 2 goals and conceded 4 in those games, while they are 0-2-1 in away Cup games this season too.
The side have actually won just 1 of their last 5 games in all competitions, although the defeat at Manchester United during the week was their first in 6 games. Newcastle have failed to win any of their last 6 away games in all competitions and they have just 1 win in 8 going back to last season.
Tim Krul and Danny Simpson may both return to the squad for this game while both Fabriccio Coloccini and Cheick Tiote game through 90 minutes at Old Trafford on Wednesday night. The likes of Yohan Cabaye and Demba will be restored to the starting line up.
Head to Head
Reading and Newcastle United met a couple of seasons ago when both were playing in the Championship and it was Newcastle that won both League games including a 1-2 win here at the Majedski Stadium.
Reading did beat Newcastle at home in back to back seasons in the Premier League.
Prediction
Reading have had a couple of really poor performances in the League, but this was a side that pushed Chelsea all the way at Stamford Bridge and didn't really deserve to lose that game having been at 2-2 with 10 minutes remaining.
It seems the layers have had a bit of an over-reaction to their poor form, but not enough to make it worth backing the home side to avoid defeat.
It has to be remembered that Newcastle United have only 1 win in 8 away games in all competitions and even that came against an unfocused Chelsea side in May. They were very fortunate to leave Everton with a point after a disappointing performance against Chelsea in August.
The win-draw-win market doesn't really appeal to me in this game, but the chances of seeing a goal after 73 minutes does and that is being offered at 1.92.
Reading have only scored 2 home goals this season and both of those came in the last minute of games, while Newcastle both scored and conceded in the last ten minutes of their last away game. This is also a game where neither side will want to take a backward step as both will feel it is winnable so I imagine at least one will be pushing forward in the final minutes as they chase the win.
I was very close to picking Reading to score in the final 15 minutes at a big looking 3.50, but I don't like being greedy and seeing any team score in the last 17 minutes looks the call.
The Statistics :
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
The Pick :
Reading 2-1 Newcastle United
BEST BETTING TIP :
I'll back Time of Last Goal After 73 Minutes @ 1.92 (Paddy Power)
