Champions League
2013-03-06 - Paris St Germain vs Valencia
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: European Champions League
Wednesday 6 March 2013 - Kick Off 7:45pm
This game is live on TV
Paris St Germain
There were a few stand out performances from the first legs in the Champions League, but Paris St Germain's performance and result at Valencia was right up there with the best of them. It looked like being a very impressive result, but a last minute goal from Valencia means the tie is still open as Paris hold a 2-1 lead.
It may have been down to this game and the anticipation of it that saw Paris St Germain lose 1-0 at Reims on Saturday night and that means they are only 2 points clear of Lyon in the chase for the title. PSG have also taken to the Champions League very effectively this season and have won all 3 home games they have played in the Group Stage and they have won 5 straight games in the competition since a 1-0 loss at Porto.
Since winning in Valencia, Paris St Germain have lost 2 of their last 4 games in all competitions, but their home form has remained very steady. Paris have won 5 in a row at home in all competitions and they have won 9 of their last 10 in front of their own fans while remaining unbeaten since the middle of November.
Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Marco Verratti are both suspended for the home team in this game. Thiago Silva is still absent, while David Beckham is expected to make a start for his new club.
Valencia
Over the last few seasons, Valencia have been a solid feature in the Champions League but one that has rarely looked like threatening to win the trophy. Since the glory days of the early part of the 21st Century, Valencia have struggled to beat the best teams in Europe and this is going to be a real test for them to overturn the one goal deficit as they need to score at least twice in Paris.
The side are also in for a real fight in La Liga to get back into the Champions League next season with a number of clubs fighting for the fourth place behind Barcelona, Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid. Valencia finished with a 2-0-1 record in the Group Stage away from home, but fans will point to their poor record at some of the bigger clubs in recent seasons.
Valencia's home loss to Paris St Germain is the only defeat they have suffered in their last 8 games in all competitions. They have only lost 1 of their last 8 away games in all competitions, and are unbeaten in 3 since a loss at Real Madrid. Valencia had won 2 of those games before a 2-2 draw at Real Zaragoza in their last away game.
Ricardo Costa and Adil Rami are both going to be missing for this game.
Head to Head
This is the first time Paris St Germain and Valencia will be meeting at the Parc de Princes in a competitive game.
Prediction
I know Paris St Germain are missing their talisman up front, but they still have enough talent in their team to see off Valencia in this one. However, under-estimating a solid Spanish team is never a good thing and I don't want to back Paris St Germain to win this game at odds on.
That is mainly because Paris don't have to win this game to go through and that is the ultimate objective of every team. So I can't see Paris pushing for a win if the game is 1-1 with a 15 minutes left to play...
In saying that, I still think Paris are the more likely winners and I think it may make more sense to back the home side to score at least 2 goals at a bigger price than them to win the game. There is a chance that Valencia would be caught on the counter if they are chasing the game and Paris have scored at least two goals in all of their Champions League home games and also in 4 of their last 5 home games overall.
Valencia also do concede goals and Paris could take advantage of that so backing them to score at least twice is the call for me.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Paris St Germain 2-1 Valencia
