German Bundesliga
2025-02-07 - Bayern Munich vs Werder Bremen
A Sports Betting Pick by Niko
Football; Germany: Bundesliga
Allianz Arena – Munich
Friday, 07th February 2025 - kickoff 20:30 CET
Bayern Munich
The Bavarians won their sixth straight game last week, beating the charming Holstein Kiel side 4-3. What was a bit worrying for Bayern Munich was that they had a 4-0 lead, yet they conceded three goals by one of the two worst sides in the German Bundesliga!
Werder Bremen should be a more difficult test, although Bayern Munich have beaten them five times in their most recent six Bundesliga duels. However, we should not forget that Werder Bremen won on their last trip to Allianz Arena, 0-1 in January last year.
More goals should be expected in this game, as Bayern Munich’s matches in the last couple of months involved many goals. Three or more were scored in seven of their last eight Bundesliga games.
Bayern Munich has shown great dominance in their most recent Bundesliga games, winning all their last four at HT/FT. This duel against Werder Bremen will likely end the same, a perfect warm-up for the Champions League playoff duel against Celtic FC next midweek.
Werder Bremen
After failing to win four in a row (two draws, two defeats), Werder Bremen achieved their first win in 2025 last week, beating Mainz 1-0 at home. However, that win came at a great cost.
The referee made the game very nervous, especially towards the end of the match. Amazingly, two players and Werder Bremen’s coach received red cards in that game! Niklas Stark, team captain Marco Friedl, and coach Ole Werner are all suspended. The red cards they received were less for fouls and more for insulting the referee, which perhaps is too harsh.
Despite missing two important players for this game, Werder Bremen did a good job last week on the transfer market. They signed the Portuguese striker André Silva on the last day of the transfer window.
Silva previously played for Eintracht Frankfurt and RB Leipzig, so he has a good knowledge of German football and does not need much adaptation. He will surely get good playing time in Bremen, as he was mostly a bench player for RB Leipzig this season, entering as a substitute in 13 of his 15 appearances.
One interesting thing about Werder Bremen this season is that they achieved more wins at away stadiums (five wins) than at home (three wins).
Regarding their first duel against Bayern Munich this season, Werder Bremen were hammered 0-5 last September.
The Betting Verdict
Each week, the odds for Bayern Munich’s games look ridiculous. It’s understandable, but there is no value in whichever market you see – even HT/FT and most goals markets have low odds. Fortunately, we found a good bet in Harry Kane to score twice or more last week, which paid excellently.
I am not going again for Kane this week, as we cannot expect him to score several goals in all matches he plays. However, I think there is another good bet worth taking.
The option for both teams to score looks appealing to me. Werder Bremen usually gets hammered by Bayern Munich each year but is capable of scoring goals. They have scored in 10 of their last 12 Bundesliga games, even in games where they were heavy underdogs, against teams near the top.
If the worst side, Holstein Kiel, could score three (!) against Bayern Munich last week, why can’t Werder Bremen score only once? I hope they do, and that is the recommended bet for this match.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Bayern Munich 4-1 Werder Bremen
