AFL Aussie Rules
2011-04-30 - Richmond Tigers vs Brisbane Lions
A Sports Betting Pick by Costanzo
Time: 19:10 AEST,
Venue: MCG, Melbourne
Not a match of much note but we will see the exciting Jack Riewoldt and a Tigers team buoyed by a terrific comeback against the Roos at the weekend.
Richmond Tigers
The Tigers are young and exciting. They make a lot of errors but do it because they are taking risks. The more risks they take the more confidence they build and with every game their young players are appearing more and more capable.
In the defence it would be fair to say the Tigers are at their weakest. Alex Rance and Luke McGaune play at the key positions and they are quite inexperienced. But the trend with the team is to let youngsters learn how to play through experience and against a weaker forward line in the Lions I think they could have a decent night.
The midfield has all Tiger fans licking their lips. Trent Cotchin and Dustin martin are two of the games brightest prospects. Martin kicked a bag of goals last week and had the ball on a string in what many have dubbed his best performance to date. With the class of Brett Deledio floating through the middle as well as the hard men like Daniel Jackson and Nathan Foley the Tigers have a solid edge through the centre.
Jack Riewoldt is a machine. He will win the Coleman Medal again this year and at such a young age the Tigers will be doing all they can to ensure he signs his next contract at Punt Road. He will have one of the best spoiling defenders on him in this clash but I still think jack can kick 3-4 goals which will be enough for the Tiges. They also have a lively Jake King down front as well as Brad Miller who can lead strong and present all day.
Brisbane Lions
The Lions will be well rested after 9-10 days between matches. More importantly they will be pretty confident in their abilities after shutting the Saints right down last round. They still lost but exposed plenty of cracks in the Saints and looked like the better team, particularly after HT.
The defence for the Lions is led by Daniel Merrett who is relentless with his spoiling game and will be sure to give Riewoldt a tough time on Saturday night. Jed Adcock and Cheynee Stiller are not massive names in AFL but compared to some of the other youngsters at Brisbane they will need to step up and lead by experience.
The midfield can be competitive for patches but the problem is a full four quarter effort. Simon Black is still a pleasure to watch. In a relative sense think of Ryan Giggs and then watch Black. Experience counts for a bit but the class is still there and the way he has looked after himself means he can still put in great games week in week out. Tom Rockliff, Jack Redden and Daniel Rich are emerging in the game of AFL and are names you can expect to be household fixtures for 10 plus years, however right now they are a
little behind the Tigers in terms of development.
With Johnno brown still out for a few more weeks the forward line is owned by Mitch Clark. He had a good outing last week kicking 4 but the question is how will he fare on the road with a little bit more pressure on his shoulders? Todd Banfield and James Polkinghorne will be the other options for the Lions and without at least 4-5 goals coming from the midfield this could get ugly.
The Verdict
On form it is hard to go past the Tigers. The Lions could keep it tight or get blown right out. I will err on the side of caution.
The Pick :
Richmond Tigers 111- Brisbane Lions 84
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take Richmond to win by 16 or more points at 1.85 at Centrebet.
