Icelandic Football
2011-08-03 - Valur Reykjavik vs Grindavik
A Sports Betting Pick by Cornholio
Football : Icelandic top league - Round 13
Wednesday August 3 2011, 19:15 (GMT)
After a short break the top legaue battle continues with one of the title candidates hosting one of the relegation candidates.
With one team in desperate need for a win to keep the hope for the title alive and the other one almost securing their spot in the top league by winning we might be in for a hard fought game.
Valur Reykjavik
After five straight wins Valur have lost their track a bit losing their last game at FH Hafnarfjordur 3-2 and drawing the two games before that. This means Valur have fallen dangerously behind leaders KR Reykjavik who are now 4 points clear with one less game played.
Sitting in 2nd place with 23 points Valur are only 1 point ahead of IBV Vestmannaeyjar who also have a game in hand. FH are also closing in fast now trailing by only 4 points.
What is troublesome for Valur is the fact that in those three last game they have conceded 5 goals, one more than in all nine games before that.
Against FH in the last round they conceded 2 goals from setup play which made their manager furious after the game. Valur have the tallest and one of the most strongest center defense in the league so it's really not acceptable for them to concede goals in the manner.
This is especially true when FH's shortest player gets to jump all alone in the box to net the ball.
One wonders if the slowness of Valur's defense is finally catching up with them and if that is the case they will have to get their scoring ability up. Valur have scored 18 goals in those 12 games, which is, strangely enough, only the 6th most in the league.
Valur's current overall record is 7 2 3, 18:9 where they are 4 1 1, 7:3 at home and 3 1 2, 11:6 away. Their sole loss at home came against IBV in the 2nd round and they drew against Stjarnan in the 10th round where they were lucky not to lose that game.
Facing the weakest defense in the league anything else than a win will probably go far as to exclude Valur from the title race. They will surely be looking at a repetition of the results they got at Grindavik earlier in the season where they won comfortaby 0-2.
Grindavik
Grindavik's season has been like all other recent seasons, the smell of relegation is not far away. Actually it's easy to argue that they are quite lucky that both Fram and Vikingur have been so terrible since it already looke like the two are doomed.
After getting a good win at home against IBV, Grindavik lost badly at home to Fylkir 1-4 in the last round where their defense was absolutely terrible.
Before that they played 4 games without getting a win and before that they had only won 2 of the first 6 games. People have certainly been talking about how secure their manager's spot is but it seems to be going badly for them that he is also playing with the team.
Grindavik now sit in 10th place with only 11 points from 3 wins and 2 draws. They have lost 7 games and have a scoreline of 15:26 but they are still 4 points in clear of the relegation zone, which is of course not much when so much is left to play.
Grindavik iare pretty similar at home and away, being 2 0 4, 7:12 and 1 2 3, 8:14 respectively. But bare in mind that their sole away win came against Fylkir in the first round playing indoors on neutral grounds while the two draws were against Vikingur and Fram, the two most horrible teams in the league.
The three losses were at Breidablik, Stjarnan and FH, with two of those being with the smallest margin while they were humiliated by FH 7-2. Now they play against a bit similar opponent as FH since Valur have a slow defense, very strong midfiled but not so strong forwards. Grindavik will certainly not be wanting to make a copy of the game against FH.
With two difficult games against Breidablik and Keflavik, Grindavik can't afford to lose this game, especially since Thor Akureyri are hosting a bad Fram side and can go all clear by winning that game. This would leave Grindavik stuck down in the third lowest place which would produce a bit risky even though it really doesn't look like Vikingur or Fram are going to catch them.
Grindavik can be happy with a draw against Valur but it's hard to see how they are going to sit back tight given the amount of goals they have conceded. Only two times have they managed to keep a clean sheet, surprisingly against IBV and against Vikingur who don't score too often.
Head to head
2011: Grindavik - Valur 0-2
2010: Valur - Grindavik 0-0
2010: Grindavik - Valur 1-2
2009: Grindavik - Valur 3-1
2009: Valur - Grindavik 1-1
2008: Grindavik - Valur 3-5
2008: Valur - Grindavik 3-0
2006: Valur - Grindavik 2-1
2006: Grindavik - Valur 1-1
The Betting Verdict
Think of this game as a home win banker. It's really hard to come to any other conclusion even if Valur have been slowing down a bit lately. It's also highly likely that Valur will score since Grindavik's defense is so bad. The question is whether Grindavik will also score making Valur's task a bit more difficult.
Having said that I'm having trouble deciding whether this game will be over or unders. After playing 6 of the first 7 games with under 2.5 Valur's 3 of last 5 have been over 2.5. Keep that in mind if you are thinking this will be under, look for fair value.
I am rating Valur as high as 70% since I can not see them losing this game. The odds on offer are around value so it might be safest to simply back Valur to win. Interwetten are currently offering the best.
