English Premier
2019-02-11 - Wolves vs Newcastle United
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: English Premier League
Monday 11th February 2019 - Kick Off 8pm
This game is live on TV
Wolves
It might have been a more tricky Fourth Round FA Cup tie than it looked on paper, but Wolves managed to just about see off League One Shrewsbury Town and now the fans are wondering if there is a real chance of the side picking up silverware this season. Nuno Espirito Santo has rewarded his players with some warm weather training in Spain over the last few days and he will be looking for a positive performance from his players as they return to Premier League action.
A convincing win over Everton last weekend has strengthened the hold on 7th place for Wolves, but they play last in this round of fixtures and that gap could be down to as little as a single point to 8th place. Opening that up again won't be easy against a Rafa Benitez team, but Wolves have a solid enough 6-2-5 record at home in the Premier League this season where they have scored 19 goals and conceded 18.
Wolves are unbeaten in 5 games in all competitions since their 3-0 loss at Manchester City and they have been flying with 4 wins in that run. The goals have also been flowing for Wolves with three scored in each of their last 3 wins over West Ham United, Everton and Shrewsbury Town. The side have won 4 straight games at Molineux in all competitions and scored at least two in each of those, while scoring three or more in their last 3 games here.
Ruben Vinagre and Diogo Jota were not used in the FA Cup after picking up knocks, but both are expected to be passed fit for this one.
Newcastle United
A couple of vital home wins produced in January have made sure Newcastle United have remained out of the bottom three in the Premier League table, but things remain pretty congested for the final relegation berth. Most will expect one of the three relegation places to go to Huddersfield Town, while Fulham look set to take the second of those and that leaves The Magpies as one of a number of clubs looking to avoid that third spot.
They come into the weekend in 15th place in the Premier League table, but a late goal conceded at Wembley Stadium saw Newcastle United lose on a weekend where the three teams directly below them all earned points. It means Newcastle United are just 2 points clear of Cardiff City in 18th place. The Magpies have a 2-5-5 record away from home in the League where they have scored 9 goals and conceded 15.
Newcastle United were knocked out of the FA Cup at the hands of Watford, but days later they beat Manchester City at St James' Park to make that defeat almost irrelevant to the fans. They have won back to back home Premier League games, but it has been harder work for Newcastle United on their travels and they have been beaten in 3 of their last 4 away League games.
Paul Dummett, Ki Sung-Yeung, Mohamed Diame and Jonjo Shelvey all need to pass fitness tests to be involved. Miguel Almiron has become Newcastle United's record signing, but he is yet to be cleared to play his first game for them.
Head to Head
A late goal helped Wolves beat ten man Newcastle United 1-2 earlier this season.
Wolves have not won any of their last 4 home games against Newcastle United and have lost the last 2 here. The last of those came in the 2016/17 season when both clubs played in the Championship, and Wolves' fortunes have been revived considerably in the exactly two years since they last played at Molineux.
Prediction
Two years to the day Wolves hosted Newcastle United in the Championship and an Aleksander Mitrovic goal helped The Magpies win 0-1 on their way to the title and a return to the Premier League.
They earned 94 points that season as they bounced back from relegation at the first attempt and in the same campaign Wolves finished 15th with just 58 points and a 16-10-20 record.
Things changed for Wolves that summer and the investment made into the club has seen them attract some real quality that has seen them promoted to the Premier League under Nuno Espirito Santo. This season Wolves are showing they can be considered best of the rest outside of the top six in the Premier League while they are also enjoying a FA Cup run that has seen them move through to the Fifth Round.
Newcastle United have not made the same investment in that time and they have been a team that has struggled in the bottom half of the Premier League since returning to the top flight. Even breaking their record transfer fee in the January transfer window won't have impressed that many people and Newcastle United have been overtaken by the likes of Wolves who are looking much further up the League table.
One factor that makes Newcastle United dangerous is the manager Rafa Benitez who knows how to organise his teams to frustrate opponents. They have needed to ride their luck at times in recent games, but that is down to the level of quality of players that Newcastle United have rather than the tactics and it isn't hard to work out what they will look to do here.
Limiting space and trying to catch Wolves on the counter attack will be the game plan and to be fair it is something that the likes of Huddersfield Town and Crystal Palace have used to beat the home team at Molineux. Watford have also won here so Wolves do look plenty short to beat Newcastle United on Monday Night Football, although I have to say I have been impressed with the attacking qualities they have shown in recent games.
Goals have been flowing for Wolves and I think that confidence will make the difference in what could be a tight game. Newcastle United have not been as strong away from St James' Park in recent games in the Premier League and I think Wolves will work their way to breaking down their visitors and winning this game.
It still doesn't mean they are a great price outright, but backing Wolves to continue the scoring output may just be the boost this pick needs. They have scored at least two goals in 4 straight games at home in all competitions and Wolves have won all of those. In fact Wolves have won 5 and lost 5 of their last 10 home Premier League games and in each win they have needed to score at least two goals to secure it and I expect that to be the case this Monday too.
Newcastle United might not be an offensive powerhouse, but they have scored in 5 of their last 7 away games in the League so Wolves may need two goals if they are going to win this and that is what I will look for them to do.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Wolves 2-1 Newcastle United
