Rugby League
2024-09-15 - Canterbury Bulldogs vs Manly Sea Eagles
A Sports Betting Pick by Stu
Rugby League : Australia : NRL
Sunday 15th September 2024 - KO 1805 AEST
Canterbury Bulldogs
Canterbury, who finished 6th, 14-10 limped into the finals by losing their last 2 regular season matches to Manly and North Queensland in rounds 26 and 27, but by fortune of Manly not winning their last match of the season the Dogs retained their home final in week one of the post season.
That said, their season has been a massive turn around on previous years, making the finals for the first time since 2015. The bulldogs, who were in hot form winning 5 in a row prior to the 2 losses did get found out in the middle of the park by 2 larger forward packs who really ran through the guts.
This set up plenty of attacking opportunities, Canterbury, if they have any desires to play on this season will certainly need to sure up the middle as the blueprint has been set.
North Queensland utterly embarrassed the Bulldogs on home soil in the last regular season outing going down 6-44. Their only points came mid-way through the second half while the Cowboys ran in 7 tries and looked a class above throughout the match.
Canterbury Bulldogs Team news -Burton and Xerri return but Addo-Carr is out due to an off-field indiscretion, Skelton is the wing replacement.
Manly Sea Eagles
Manly finished 7th on the table, 13-1-10 just one point behind their opposition this week, Canterbury Bulldogs. They also come into the post season with some very mixed form 3-3 from their past 6, losing badly to the Sharks and Tigers in recent weeks and some great wins against Canterbury and Raiders.
Tom Trboyevic has not been able to play for a couple of these matches and his presence is massive for Manly, the fact he returns for this post season makes Manly’s chances much higher.
Cronulla put in a huge showing against the Sea Eagles who are usually very strong at home. Although Manly did lead 8-4 after 17 minutes it didn’t take long after that to realise it wasn’t the Sea eagles day with the Sharks outscoring Manly 2 tries to 6 from there onwards for a final score 20-40, not an ideal way to enter the finals.
Manly Sea Eagles Team news -Big inclusion with Tom Trboyevic slotting straight back into fullback. No other changes expected and a special note to Luke Brooks who gets to play in his first ever finals match after some 220+ games.
Odds
The odds couldn’t be much closer, $1.91 each H2H, the line is 1.5 points in favour of Manly and combined points 44.5 – the last match played combined points was 56.
The Betting Verdict
This match is 6th v 7th and an elimination final, win and you play the loser of Penrith v Roosters at their home ground, lose and your season is over. These teams have met in 5 previous finals, the Bulldogs have won four of five, including the 1995 grand final.
Overall H2H the Sea Eagles lead 21-22 from 43 previous meetings. Accor stadium is the venue, where these sides met just 2 weeks ago and Canterbury win here 54% of the time, while Manly added one more to the tally just recently, but still hold a losing record at the venue, 16-21.
The most recent match played was round 26 at this venue, Manly coming out on top 22-34. Canterbury scored first with Manly following up with a dominant first half scoring 4 tries to lead at the break 12-24, tries to both wingers and the fullback showing how potent the attack can be. The second half was again all the Sea eagles util the last 10 minutes where Canterbury scored 2 late tries.
If Manly go in and execute the same game plan by smashing them right through the middle, it will be very hard for Canterbury to get past week one. Stephen Crichton was missing for this fixture though and his return will improve the Dogs chances.
With Addo-Carr providing an unwanted distraction this week with an off-field indiscretion, Canterbury lose a talented winger who set up 2 tries and scored one himself in his last outing. This definitely gives the Sea Eagles the upper hand, despite the return of Burton and Xerri.
Cherry-Evans looked way off his game last weekend, almost to the point he had more than one eye on next weekends fixture. He is a big game player and knows just how important his kicking game is for the Sea Eagles and how he links with his potent back line. I am expecting he will have a monster of a game and lead his team to week 2 of the finals.
Where to put your money? I can’t see either team running away with his one, both have attacking flair and both can defend well on any given day which make me think this should be a tight result. Therefore 1-12 options for your favoured team and Manly returning $2.05 to win by 2 or more could be good options if you think the Sea Eagles can get up.
Considering the absence of Addo-Carr and the return of Tom turbo, I think Manly will be good enough here to win by around 6+ points.
First try scorer Hamole Olakau’atu $21.00
The Pick :
Canterbury Bulldogs 18-26 Manly Sea Eagles
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
Take Manly sea Eagles -1.5 points line option returning $2.05 with Bet365
