Italian Serie A
2025-11-23 - Lazio vs Lecce
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 12
Stadio Olimpico, Rome, Lazio, Italy (70,634)
Sunday, 23 November 2025, 18:00 CET
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Lazio Team News
Lazio just lost 2-0 on the road against Inter, as expected, after winning 2-0 at home against Cagliari. Now Lazio is back to a very similar game to that one, where they're facing a relegation candidate and are expected to win cleanly.
Lazio is not a reliable favourite at all. They'll get their wins here and there when the air pressure is right, and most of them will be to nil. When it rains it pours for Lazio, when they win they win to nil as if it's the easiest thing in the world. When the opponent actually knows how to play football, then it's a different story.
Lecce Team News
Lecce will win when they manage to score a goal from a counter attack and keep a clean sheet at the same time. The classic underdog win. They did it twice so far, both times on the road, against Parma and Fiorentina, and they have no other wins to their name in 2025/26.
While Lecce can get involved in high-scoring affairs from time to time, the baseline is still zero or one goal in any fixture that involves Lecce. It's easy to understand why -- Lecce isn't really good at scoring goals, and as a low-quality side it makes sense for them to be defensive.
Probable Lineups
Lazio (4-3-3): Provedel - Marusic, Gila, Romagnoli, Pellegrini - Guendouzi, Basic, Cataldi - Isaksen, Dia, Zaccagni. Coach Sarri.
Lecce (4-3-3): Falcone - Veiga, Gaspar, Tiago Gabriel, Gallo - Helgason, Ramadani, Berisha - Pierotti, Stulic, Morente. Coach Di Francesco.
The Betting Market
We get 1.62 here on Lazio after getting 1.53 against Cagliari, which is a match that Lazio won 1.53. Well that's nice -- a rare case when the odds increase after success in a similar scenario. You'd expect less than 1.53 here as Lazio proved they can beat relegation candidates.
Under 2.5 Goals is priced at 1.67 as the bookmakers expect something like 2-0 for Lazio, and the price on Both Teams To Score: NO is exactly the same. But this is risky waters, Lazio usually surrenders a lot of xG, they just don't concede so it doesn't show in final scores. This defence is a liability.
The Betting Verdict
Despite all negatives of Lazio and all positives of Lecce, it's still a gift to get 1.62 on Lazio in this fixture. If Lazio can win any game, it's the home game against a defensive-minded relegation candidate, right? The perception of this game is probably influenced by the meaningless (for Lazio) last round of the previous season where Lecce won 0-1. We see a clear favourite in this match and it's Lazio, they will likely win.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Lazio 2-1 Lecce
