Italian Serie A
2025-01-19 - Cagliari vs Lecce
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 21
Unipol Domus, Cagliari, Sardinia, Italy (16,416)
Sunday, 19 January 2025, 15:00 CET
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Cagliari Team News
Cagliari did well in terms of result at Milan, as the game ended 1-1, but it was one of those instances in football where it simply ends that way due to variance -- Milan was dominant there and Cagliari scored on a half-chance.
So you could draw all kinds of conclusions from this Milan game and the 1-2 win at Monza that came the week before, but Cagliari is in a prolonged losing run that is briefly interrupted by some good result. We can expect them to revert to normal soon.
Lecce Team News
Looking at the results this season, Lecce hasn't really lost to fellow relegation candidates. Como is the only exception, which would probably mean that Como is slightly above this pack.
Lecce just won at Empoli, and also won at home against Monza recently, so their results against weak sides can no longer be considered a fluke. They do well whenever they're facing a threatened side as they're simply tougher and more condensed.
Probable Lineups
Cagliari (4-2-3-1): Sherri - Zappa, Mina, Luperto, Obert - Adopo, Makombou - Zortea, Viola, Augello - Piccoli. Coach Nicola.
Lecce (4-3-3): Falcone - Guilbert, Baschirotto, Jean, Dorgu - Coulibaly, Pierret, Helgason - Pierotti, Krstovic, Karlsson. Coach Giampaolo.
The Betting Market
Cagliari is the favourite at 1.90 but we'd be careful with this, as Lecce has shown signs of life recently and have upset quite a few teams that thought they'll have it easy against them. If anything, bet on Lecce to not lose the game instead, the price is 1.90 too.
The bookmakers say both teams will likely do the scoring, with a price of 1.80, despite Over 2.5 Goals being priced at 2.00 with a 1.80 on the Under.
The Betting Verdict
It's incredible that we're getting 1.80 on the Under, so we'll gladly take the offered bet. Cagliari can go both ways and play a low-scoring game when needed or go all-out into a five-goal thriller if the game opens up.
But Lecce is pretty much capable only of low-scoring games, so they'll pull Cagliari with them into trench warfare. It's unlikely this game will evolve into a shootout.
The last three meetings of these teams since Cagliari got promoted to Serie A - this is the fourth - have all been low-scoring. The two meetings from last season ended 1-1, and the match in Lecce ended 1-0 for the home side.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Cagliari 1-1 Lecce
