Italian Serie A
2025-08-23 - Genoa vs Lecce
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 1
Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Genoa, Liguria, Italy (33,205)
Saturday, 23 August 2025, 18:30 CET
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Genoa Team News
Genoa is now quite far removed from the season 2023/24 when they finished 11th despite just joining from Serie B. Last season, they finished 13th, with only 6 points less, but it was obvious that this team is finding it difficult to keep up the same standard while rebuilding the squad.
Now, judging by the transfer activity, Genoa is in for another decline. For more than two years, this side has relied on a star duo of forwards - whoever they may be at the moment - to lead the way. But now, only Vitinha - who scored twice in 25 games last season - is a big name player. Milan’s Lorenzo Colombo (23) came on loan after playing for Empoli last season, and an upcoming Genoa-born star Jeff Ekhator (18) could be a revelation. While Genoa strengthened the team overall with some loanees in midfield and defence, this side really lives and dies by the forward duo.
If Vitinha, Colombo and/or Ekhator fail to produce, expect this to be a toothless side that is still difficult to beat. Also, Genoa cashed in on players that rose above the average, as De Winter, Ahanor and Gudmundsson were sold to Italian clubs for a combined fee of €50m.
Expect this to be a mid-table team. Genoa found the right recipe for avoiding any relegation problems, and we don’t expect them to have any problems now either. Most of their wins - nine out of ten last season - come against relegation candidates, both home and away.
Lecce Team News
Lecce only managed to save itself from the drop with a pair of 1-0 wins, at home against Torino and away against Lazio. The lowest-scoring side in the division (27 goals, after 32 and 33 in the previous two seasons) did nothing to upgrade the offensive part of the squad, but they did something to prevent themselves from ever scoring again - they sold Nikola Krstovic to Atalanta.
Expect this team to again hover just above the relegation zone, based on defensive resilience alone, and get less than their usual 8 wins that they seem to have every season. Other than the two already mentioned wins in the final two rounds of Serie A 2024/25, all of Lecce’s wins were against relegation candidates, and most were 1-0 or 0-1.
When Lecce have their way in a game and they control the proceedings, it’s almost guaranteed the game will be low-scoring. They are known to concede three or four goals to anyone on a bad day, be it Parma or Roma, Cagliari or Inter, but when they successfully lock down the opponent, the game is guaranteed to be a bore fest.
For such a low-scoring team that almost never scores more than once - they only scored 2 goals three times last season - under is the most reliable bet. It would have gone through 61% of the time last season.
Probable Lineups
(to be updated 24h before the game)
The Betting Market
The price on Genoa is 1.95, which is decent, and it's interesting to note that Genoa won all three recent H2Hs 2-1, in 19/20, 22/23 and 24/25. Prices were around 2.00 on all three.
Under is priced at 1.61 and we'd stay away from that one, but BTTS-No is priced at 1.75 and it seems a decent bet, knowing how poor Lecce is in offense.
The Betting Verdict
The under would perhaps be a bit more tempting if the price wasn’t almost the minimum that you get in Serie A, but even if it was higher, it just doesn’t seem to be worth the risk. Genoa is a higher quality side, Lecce did nothing to repair itself compared to last season, so let’s bet on Genoa to do what Genoa does best - take three points against a fellow relegation candidate. They’ll find a way.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Genoa 1-0 Lecce
