Italian Serie A
2025-08-24 - Como vs Lazio
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 1
Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Como, Lombardy, Italy (13,602)
Sunday, 24 August 2025, 18:30 CET
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Como Team News
Expect good things from Como this season. This team is still in the building mode, but they’re doing the right moves, as is already obvious from their results and from the way they play under Cesc Fabregas who’s still at the helm.
Como spent over €75m on offensive players Jesus Rodriguez, Nicolas Kuhn, Martin Baturina and Jayden Addai, obviously all targeted transfers according to how Fabregas wants his team to play. So, as a result, we could expect Como to play well all the time, as opposed to brief flashes of brilliance that we’ve seen last season. This is Spanish style of football coming to overtake the Apennine peninsula.
There’s a notable lack of a quality centre forward - if you’re willing to accept Alvaro Morata is no longer a top player - but for this style of football it was never about the forward as the entire offense needs to be fluent. At any rate, expect Como to finish in the top half again, perhaps even a step further. If things keep going in this same direction, Como could become a new force in Italian football. It won’t be long before Como becomes a contender. Stranger things have happened. Looking at you, Manchester City, obscure until 2008 or so.
Lazio Team News
If Como is an example of the new ways, then Lazio is definitely a perfect example of the old ways. A traditional, big club, that can’t find a way to move forward, largely because of poor recruitment and being stuck in some ancient mindset. As Como searches for new upcoming talent such as Baturina or Addai, Lazio is reluctant to do so, and only respect players who have already made their name in Serie A and/or the Italian national team. How else to explain the purchase of one Nicolo Rovella from Juventus for €17m? And that being it for this transfer window?
Ironically, Fisayo Dele-Bashiru, who was plucked a year ago from Hatayspor on loan, and whose move was now made permanent, is probably the most potent player in Lazio right now. You wouldn’t see it in stats - 5 goals and 3 assists - but he actually only played the equivalent of 17 full matches, and he always takes the game to the opponent.
Likewise, we can expect Boulaye Dia, the phenomenal forward, to explode this year after settling into this team fully. The man in charge is Maurizio Sarri - again, Lazio likes the old ways - who is back to manage the team after a one-year hiatus.
There is not much new that can be expected of Lazio. This side finished 7th and had hit their stride at one point in the season, but the thrill was short-lived. We’re probably looking at something similar here again, but there is far too little disruptive talent in this squad to make good form permanent. Just look at the right wing - it is handled by one Gustav Isaksen who’s got around 4 goals and 3 assists in him per season. Two more players who didn’t make it in this league, Noslin and Cancellieri, are his backups, and therefore the 38-year-old Pedro will likely again have to step up and score important goals.
This is a very poorly constructed roster, with glaring holes, and with certain players that shouldn’t be on contract at a club of this stature.
Probable Lineups
(to be updated 24h prior to kick off)
The Betting Market
Como is actually favoured, the price is 2.45, so the bookmakers got the memo that this is a serious football side. What we have a problem with is Como's ability to go out and win a game when they want to, as opposed to when being lucky enough to. If that makes sense. So, we'd leave the 1x2 market alone.
Maybe you could take the Draw No Bet at 1.70.
The price on Over 2.5 Goals is 2.00, same as the price on BTTS-No.
The Betting Verdict
Everything points to an exciting game here, and perhaps one that will see Como prevail. Not sure if they’re ready for such a step yet, but if you look at the total market value of players then you’ll see Como is at €254m while Lazio is at €276m. Not such a big difference, with a note that Como is has a much more balanced roster and a more modern coach.
Last season, Como has 8-5-6 at home and only two notable wins, against Roma and Napoli, as they were still testing the waters to see if they can play against the big boys. They lost to Lazio 1-5 in the process, and weren’t very reliable against the relegation candidates either. At the same time, Lazio is known as one of the best visitors in the league. They had 11 wins last season, and also had 11 the last time Sarri was in charge.
All things considered, we’ll stay away from the Como win as we still don’t trust them to have the will to defeat a giant, and we think the new players haven’t settled just yet. However, we fully believe they will score, perhaps even more than once, and so will Lazio as they’ll come here searching for all three points.
We'll take the Over 2.5 here. Both sides believe they can win this one, and both will set out to win it with offense.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Como 2-2 Lazio
