Italian Serie A
2025-08-23 - Sassuolo vs Napoli
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 1
Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore, Reggio Emilia, Emilia-Romagna, Italy (21,525)
Saturday, 23 August 2025, 18:30 CET
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Sassuolo Team News
You wouldn’t believe it, but by player market values, Sassuolo joined the middle of Serie A instantly upon arrival. This team has a total worth of almost €150m, which is more than Genoa or Parma. A round of applause goes to Domenico Berardi, now 31, who didn’t accept any transfer offer following Sassuolo’s drop to Serie B, but scored 6 times and assisted for 14 goals to bring Sassuolo back to top flight.
The rest of the team is youthful - you’d be hard pressed to find a player older than 25 here - and there were no notable outgoing transfers. Teams that advance to top flight have the luxury of not having to sell anyone, as no one is interested in second league players, yet they feel a need to strengthen the squad in anticipation of an increased level of competition.
Sassuolo strengthened itself the most in defence, with the arrival of Idzes, Walukiewicz, goalkeeper Muric, and a plethora of other players, most 23 or younger. If the new defence holds, this could be one dangerous team. We know how Sassuolo plays and we know what Berardi and Pinamonti (played for Genoa last season) can do. Let’s not forget Armand Lauriente either, the French 26-year-old who scored 18 goals last season from the left wing.
Sassuolo is here to make a splash, to play on the front foot, to shock giants, and to generally give us solid entertainment. The last time they were here they kind of fizzled out, but we still remember 2023/24 when they were a permanent over 2.5 bet and a constant danger for even the richest sides in Italy.
Napoli Team News
The champions, if we know anything about the southern mentality, are now due a regression. Antonio Conte is still the head coach and there were lots of additions across the board - more on that in a minute - but it’s a fact that it was Romelu Lukaku who led this team to the title with his 14 goals and 10 assists. He is currently injured, and Lorenzo Lucca (loaned in from Udinese) and Giuseppe Ambrosino (returned from loan at Frosinone) are not even remotely the same class of player. Lukaku is expected to be out until the final third of the season.
Kevin De Bruyne is now here as the game changer, and he most certainly will be, but Napoli overall has far too many decent players and no real stars. We remember vividly how not even Giacomo Raspadori, now at Atletico Madrid, was able to make things happen against relegation candidates. The structure of Napoli is too rigid, the attacks are too predictable, and you need a Lukaku to change the course of the game. That role now falls onto De Bruyne until Lukaku returns near the end of the calendar year.
What we’re getting at is this: don’t be too surprised if it turns out that Napoli, the champion, is finding it difficult to score in 2025/26 and isn’t steamrolling the opponents as you expect. After all, this side only scored 59 goals last season while Inter and Atalanta had almost 70, so their title win was through a thread of a needle. It happened because of many crucial injury time goals.
Napoli will, once again, be a difficult side to bet on. On one hand they’re huge favourites, and on the other hand they’re really taking their sweet time with scoring. More often than not, we’d be deep in injury time and Napoli still wouldn’t take care of a defensive relegation candidate such as Empoli, so keep that in mind.
Also don't forget what happens in Antonio Conte's second season at practically every club he's ever managed. In his first season he buys Lukaku and wins the title, in his second season he fights with everyone and leaves abruptly.
Probable Lineups
(to be updated 24h prior to kick off)
The Betting Market
You get a 1.57 on Napoli if that's your thing, if you love betting on uncertain favourites who visit giant killers, early in the season, too. The Over/Under is evenly split at 1.90, and the BTTS market is, surprisingly, leaning towards a No with 1.75, which leaves 2.00 for Yes.
The Betting Verdict
Despite their defensive and rigid tendencies, Napoli will probably run out guns blazing, especially as they know Sassuolo is offensive. They’ll accept it and won’t try to control the game in a defensive manner. We’re looking at something like 1-3 here, or if Sassuolo prevails perhaps 2-1. In any case, Napoli tends to play high-scoring games early in the season, and Sassuolo does so permanently.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Sassuolo 2-2 Napoli
