Italian Serie A
2025-09-27 - Juventus vs Atalanta
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 5
Allianz Stadium, Torino, Piedmont, Italy (41,507)
Saturday, 27 September 2025, 18:00 CET
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Juventus Team News
Juventus really should have won the game in Verona. Juventus was dominant, had the lead and controlled the game, so it looked like it's just a question of whether they'll score for 0-2 or not. And then came the catastrophic penalty decision in favour of Verona that tied the score to 1-1 just before half-time. Then, it seemed, Juventus is on track to win the game regardlessly, but it turned out that they haven't managed to create a good chance. Kudos to Verona for holding out, but for Juventus it was one of those days when nothing works.
This will likely be a common occurence for Juventus, they'll always be on the brink of either winning 0-1 like they did in Genova or drawing 1-1 like they did in Verona. They try hard, but on the road you have to have an extra good day and need to make your chances count in order to get the points. That's just the way it is.
Without any doubt, Juventus will look better and possibly even get more points against opponents of higher quality than they will against bottom-third teams on the road.
Atalanta Team News
Is it possible that Ivan Juric was only a defensive coach in Torino because he had no other choice with that selection of players, and doesn't approach Atalanta game preparation in the same way?
No Atalanta game this season yet featured less than two goals, they all looked like going over 2.5, and in all but one Atalanta conceded (and that one clean sheet was due to a missed spot kick). That's not a defensive team, that's same old happy go lucky Atalanta, perhaps even to a greater extent.
Ademola Lookman got three minutes in the 0-3 road win against Torino, just to get on the pitch with the guys for the first time since his failed transfer. If he returns to his former self, add a +1 to Atalanta's expected goal totals in every game.
In his absence, the new signing from Lecce, Nikola Krstovic, has 2 goals and 3 assists in four Serie A appearances. The man even managed to do well in Lecce and has now exploded when surrounded with competent offensive players.
Probable Lineups
Juventus (3-4-2-1): Di Gregorio - Gatti, Bremer, Kelly - Kalulu, Locatelli, Thuram, Cambiaso - Zhegrova, Yildiz - David. Coach Tudor.
Atalanta (3-4-2-1): Carnesecchi - Kossounou, Djimsiti, Ahanor - Bellanova, Musah, De Roon, Zappacosta - De Ketelaere, Pasalic - Krstovic. Coach Juric.
Some notable offensive players that will be on the bench tonight, ready to come in to score goals, include Vlahovic, Openda, Koopmeiners, Samrdzic and Lookman.
The Betting Market
Juventus is a favourite but, if you ask the bookmakers, what's even more likely is that this game will be low-scoring. Both teams to score? They're not sure, 1.91 either way.
Atalanta's last three matches have a goal average of 4.00, and Juventus has 5.67. Yet somehow we are supposed to believe that when these two sides meet, it will be a tight derby with a goal here and there but definitely not three.
The only time when Atalanta or Juventus failed to go over this season was, actually, when they met minnows that defended with eleven men. The second when the opponent was anyting other than defensive, fireworks ensued.
The Betting Verdict
Unlike the bookmakers, we got the memo that Juventus is now a side whose matches can easily have seven or eight goals. Atalanta will gladly accept an open exchange of blows because they can't play in any other way.
We said it many times - Italian derbies either have one goal or five. This is the latter kind. Take the Over. For what it's worth, Over 5.5 Goals is priced at 15.00 if you want a ticket that can earn you some bragging rights.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Juventus 3-2 Atalanta
