NCAA Football
2025-10-04 - Texas Longhorns at Florida Gators
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States : College Football Week 6
Saturday 4th October 2025 - Scheduled 3:30pm
8:30pm (British Time)
Preview
SEC Conference play has begun for all but one school in 2025, but that changes in Week 6 when the Texas Longhorns (3-1) return from a Bye Week to head to Gainesville. The one loss on the resume to the Ohio State Buckeyes is unlikely to be one that forces the Committee to overlook the Longhorns at the end of the season, but Texas fans do know that the team have to improve out of the Bye Week to come through the gauntlet of the SEC schedule.
Revenge will be on the mind of the Florida Gators (1-3) having been blown out by the Longhorns in 2024, but the bigger ambition has to be snapping the three game losing run.
The road losses to the LSU Tigers and Miami Hurricanes have underlined the Offensive issues that the Florida Gators have had all season, while the defeat to the South Florida Bulls is likely going to mean changes at the end of the 2025 campaign.
Simply put, it is difficult to work out how the Gators can have much more success in this one against the Texas Defensive unit that have been pretty well balanced.
As the competition has ramped up, the Gators Offensive Line have simply not been able to find a way to open up the running lanes and they are not expected to get much change out of this Longhorns Defensive Line. A two week preparation may see them look for other ways to get the ground game going, but this is a Longhorns team that will pride themselves on making teams try and beat them from behind the chains and they can certainly do that here.
All of the pressure may be on DJ Lagway, who has not really gotten on track at the Quarter Back position early in 2025.
He is likely to be faced with significant pass rush pressure, while also trying to throw with consistency against this Texas Secondary, and it could be another long day for a Quarter Back who has 61 passing yards in the big loss to the Miami Hurricanes. DJ Lagway did have almost 300 passing yards against the LSU Tigers, but that was a day in which he threw 5 Interceptions and the Gators may be stuck in the mud in The Swamp when trying to put consistent Offensive plays on the board.
If it wasn't for the Florida Gators Defensive unit, games might have seriously got out of hand for the struggling team.
However, it can become a big ask for a team to spend a lot of time on the field and maintain high levels and in the three game losing run, there has been some opportunity for teams to run the ball against the Gators Defensive Line. This is something the Longhorns will look to do and make sure their own Quarter Back is in the best position to succeed.
Arch Manning has not really played to the level that some may have expected, but he is still learning and there are signs he is improving.
He should be faced with limited pass rush pressure and that should give Arch Manning the time to make plays from third and manageable spots on the field and that should keep the Longhorns in decent shape to win on the road.
There are reasons that the Gators should be respected- they have been very good at home when playing with rest (5-0 against the spread), and the Gators are also 6-3 against the spread as the home underdog with Head Coach Billy Napier at the helm.
Florida have revenge on the mind after being humiliated by the Longhorns eleven months ago, and the Texas Longhorns have a poor record when favoured by less than 17 points in the SEC.
These have to give pause for thought, but there is a talent differential on the Offensive side of the ball and Texas may create a turnover or two that allows them to win this one by around 10 points on the road.
Prediction
Lay the points with the road favourite.
The Pick :
Florida Gators 13-20 Texas Longhorns
