Italian Serie A
2025-10-04 - Atalanta vs Como
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 7
Stadio Atleti Azzurri d'Italia, Bergamo, Lombardy, Italy (21,747)
Saturday, 04 October 2025, 20:45 CET
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Atalanta Team News
Atalanta just won 2-1 against the nasty opponent that is Club Brugge, after trailing 0-1 until the 74th minute, and this continued the trend where Atalanta is forced to chase the score in Bergamo. It's a common occurence for this side that seems to start playing in the second half when they're already a goal down.
However, this is still one of only three undefeated sides in Serie A (Juventus, Cremonese) and Atalanta is on the sixth position, so despite results such as 1-1 against Pisa seeming tragic, this side can easily join the very top of the table with a pair of wins.
This match against Como marks the start of a three-game home streak as Atalanta will play Lazio here next before they host Slavia Prague in the Champions League.
Expect Atalanta to wobble its way to the top four in Serie A and to the knockout stage of the Champions League. They'll be chasing the score often, but will manage to achieve both goals eventually.
Como Team News
Como has only sporadically managed to see success this season, and that success came exclusively against the big(ger) teams. Lazio and Fiorentina lost to Como, and this is a list of teams that Como could not beat: Bologna, Genoa, Cremonese. One would be forigven for making a conclusion that Como is better suited to playing big sides than being in the role of favourites themselves.
It's quite possible that Como is presently at a stage where they can exploit the opponent's defence that is too open, but can not yet carve it up themselves. This would mean that this meeting with Atalanta will be exactly the scenario in which they can thrive. Atalanta will go forward as they usually do, which in turn will leave more space for Como.
We think Como will be big soon enough, in a few seasons, and will have its share of ups and downs but with a general upward trend. But it will take quite a long time before you'll be able to count on Como to perform. This is still very much a side that relies on the brilliance of one man - Nico Paz.
Probable Lineups
Atalanta (3-4-2-1): Carnesecchi - Ahanor, Hien, Djimsiti - Zappacosta, Ederson, Musah, Bernasconi - Pasalic, Lookman - Krstovic. Coach Gasperini.
Como (4-2-3-1): Butez - Posch, Ramon, Carlos, Valle - Perrone, Da Cunha - Vojvoda, Paz, Kuhn - Douvikas. Coach Fabregas (not on bench).
Atalanta could probably form a good top-third team from the guys on the sidelines. De Ketelaere, Scamacca, Kolasinac, Scalvini, Kossounou, Bellanova, Zalewski, Bakker are all injured and De Roon is suspended.
The Betting Market
The price on Atalanta is a whopping 2.20, as if the opponent is one if Italy's top sides, which would be a duel where Atalanta only enjoys a slim home advantage and little more than that. There's defintely value to be found here.
Even though the price is laughable, we still think Both Teams To Score: YES is a good bet at 1.62. You can get slightly more, 1.73, if you think there will be a third goal so the game will go over 2.5.
The Betting Verdict
Como isn't a goalscoring machine just yet, but they have enough smoothness in their offensive actions to find the net here. Atalanta has so far shown anyone can score against them, home or away. Only Torino couldn't, but posted an xG of 1.19 in that scoreless outing for them. Atalanta's defence can be exploited by anyone.
Atalanta for 2.20 is a very tempting bet if you have the nerves as it's a really valuable bet. Atalanta should be priced at 1.80, no more.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Atalanta 2-1 Como
