Italian Serie A
2025-10-04 - Lazio vs Torino
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 6
Stadio Olimpico, Rome, Lazio, Italy (70,634)
Saturday, 04 October 2025, 15:00 CET
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Lazio Team News
It's strange with Lazio, isn't it? Win to nil or lose to nil. It rains and pours, or there's not even a drop. Last week, Lazio had the kind of game where everything goes right so they won 0-3 at Genoa after being on the receiving end of 0-1 defeats against Sassuolo and Roma.
Lazio is in the same position in the Serie A pecking order as last season and, well, lots of seasons before that. They're just below the big clubs that go for the Champions League spots and are in a race to get to the Europa League at best. They haven't brought in any young exciting players, they have an old coach with old ideas, so Pedro as the starter or an impact sub is still a common sight here. The man who left Barcelona a decade ago and is already 38 is still the smoothest football player on this side of Rome.
And that's saying a lot about the other ones.
Torino Team News
If you'd exclude the shocker against Roma and the cup matches against Modena and Pisa that were both won 1-0, Torino actually hasn't even won in this league. They lost 5-0 to Inter, played 0-0 with Fiorentina, lost 0-3 to Atalanta, and then lost 2-1 to Parma last week.
There are several common themes to be seen here. Torino doesn't really score against the big teams and doesn't really score in general. Also, when they do win, it's always 1-0.
This is because this is an utterly defensive side that can't do anything other than sit back and wait, especially when they face a big favourite. Without fail, Torino will face an xG of at least 1.50, with at least four or five shots on target. These are awful numbers that say that Torino's clean sheets, even when they do happen, are a product of luck and not of a defensive playing style that works.
Torino has absolutely nothing going for them except for sheer variance.
Probable Lineups
Lazio (4-3-3): Provedel - Hysaj, Gila, Romagnoli, Tavares - Basic, Cataldi, Dele-Bashiru - Cancellieri, Castellanos, Zaccagni. Coach Baroni.
Torino (4-3-2-1): Israel - Pedersen, Coco, Maripan, Nkonkou - Casadei, Asslani, Tameze - Ngonge, Vlasic - Simeone. Coach Baroni.
The Betting Market
The most obvious bet here would probably be Both Teams To Score: NO at 1.75 as that's what happens with Lazio and with Torino most of the time. But you know that this is Serie A and that your obvious bet will be ruined.
So there's another one: Lazio to win, at almost the same price, 1.70. Even if Torino would somehow manage to score, Lazio probably has enough firepower to score two.
Under 2.5 Goals is yet another bet with similar odds, 1.73, and this would actually be a very good one if you want to avoid a straight-up bet on Lazio because you don't trust them. Torino will play defensively right from the start and is capable of maintaining defensive order for 90 minutes if need be.
The Betting Verdict
We're expecting a very similar game to the one between Roma and Torino that was won by Torino and left everyone scratching their head. Twenty-two shots by Roma, six on target, 1.14 xG, no goals. Despite some decent numbers by Torino - four shots on target - this was a game played on Torino's half throughout.
Without a doubt, Torino will assume the same stance here, defend deep and wait for a counter attack. More likely than not, Lazio will do what Roma couldn't and will take the points here to put their season back on track. That's just tad more likely than this game being low-scoring, though you might opt for the latter bet with equal confidence.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Lazio 1-0 Torino
