Italian Serie A
2025-10-28 - Atalanta vs AC Milan
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 9
Stadio Atleti Azzurri d'Italia, Bergamo, Lombardy, Italy (21,747)
Tuesday, 28 October 2025, 20:45 CET
Free live streaming at Bet365. Funded account required.
Atalanta Team News
In last six outings in all competitions, Atalanta only scored more than once in one game, the 2-1 home win against Club Brugge. The usual outcome of Atalanta's matches is around 20 shots, definitely over 1.00 xG, and zero or one goal. This is mostly because of fielding midfielders as forwards, as we explained last week.
Atalanta is playing an offensive game and it looks really good, although they rely on dribbles and duels more than anything -- this isn't top-level football. There's enough skill on the pitch to produce some eye-catching actions but apparently not enough skill, or timing, or whatever the missing ingredient is, to score in bunches.
Milan Team News
Milan was hurt yet again at home against a hopeless relegation candidate, and again managed to concede twice with ease as if PSG or Bayern were on the other end of the pitch. Pisa, the toothless side that can't work their way into the penalty box, managed to score twice on San Siro.
How, you ask? Well the first goal was the cheapest possible way to score a goal in football. Send the ball into the box, it hits someone awkwardly in the arm, you get a penalty kick and you score it. The second goal? A perfectly executed counter attack with acres of space. This can only happen when a defence has a lapse of concentration.
There's no justification for Milan here. It's an awful result and it's not the first time this happens. Milan remains a disfunctional squad with one good player as the other one, Pulisic, is injured.
Probable Lineups
Atalanta (3-4-3): Carnesecchi - Djimsiti, Hien, De Roon - Bellanova, Ederson, Pasalic, Zalewski - De Ketelaere, Krstovic, Lookman. Coach Juric.
Milan (3-5-2): Maignan - Tomori, Gabbia, Pavlovic - Saelemaekers, Fofana, Modric, Ricci, Bartesaghi - Gimenez, Leao. Coach Allegri.
Tomori returns for Milan and it's good to have him back as De Winter isn't at the same level.
The Betting Market
There's no favourite as Atalanta is priced at 2.60 while the price on Milan is 2.70. So if you're leaning one way or the other, there's money to be made here, and you can also help yourself with a Draw No Bet. The price is 1.88 on Atalanta and 1.98 on Milan.
You can get these same prices, 1.88 vs 1.98, on Over/Under 2.5 Goals respectively. Both Teams To Score: YES is probably the only bet on this game that has a significant probability to happen as it's priced at 1.67.
The Betting Verdict
It's likely that the opposite to what everyone expects will happen. Everyone sees Atalanta as a high-scoring team with a porous defence, and on the other end is Milan that just played 2-2 with a relegation candidate. Yet Atalanta will be wary of Milan and Milan will be wary of Atalanta.
Expect snail pace from Milan as they attempt to walk this game to three points without giving Atalanta enough possession to do anything about it. Atalanta will lose a lot of energy in duels and will get their chances but we know they never score them.
Six of the last ten meetings ended with less than three goals. All four matches that went Over had two goals in the first half already.
While Under 2.5 Goals is the value bet here, it's not the best type of bet to make if you intend to watch the game. Watching and hoping for no goals is no fun at all. So we'd rather pick the BTTS-Yes as that one is very likely to happen, even in a low-scoring game.
If there are two early goals here, one on each end, then you can simply watch the rest of the game with a won bet. That's more fun than betting on unders for sure.
The Pick :
Atalanta 1-1 Milan
