Italian Serie A
2025-10-29 - AS Roma vs Parma
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 9
Stadio Olimpico, Rome, Lazio, Italy (70,634)
Wednesday, 29 October 2025, 18:30 CET
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Roma Team News
We keep waiting for Roma to stop performing yet the day never comes. The latest victim in the league was Sassuolo - we won the bet on the Under - and that means Roma is tied at the top of the league with Napoli at 18 points, with an identical 6-0-2 record. Roma lost to Inter and to Torino, and only conceded three goals in eight rounds so far.
Unlike some other teams - Milan - Roma is perfectly capable of surviving a game where they concede 10+ shots and 1.00+ xG to the opponent. That's what a good defence is. Get close to conceding yet don't concede. The polar opposite would be a team that surrenders a low number of chances yet seems to concede with ease when the opponent finally manages to cook something up.
On the other end, Roma really needs a full 90 minutes of huffing and puffing with the ball to finally find that special move that results with a goal. That's what happens when you have one good player in the team, and two no-good forwards, so that one good player has to be fielded as the forward as the two expensive forwards sit on the bench.
It worked against Sassuolo. Dybala scored the only goal of the game as Ferguson watched from the bench and Dovbyk came on in the second half to register a game with only 13 touches overall and no shots.
Evan Ferguson is on loan with an option to buy for €40m. Dovbyk was paid €38m. Dybala came in on a free transfer from Juventus in 2022.
Parma Team News
Parma has managed to get two points in the last three Serie A rounds despite not scoring in any of them. Apparently the 0-1 home defeat to Lecce has caused them to defend even harder so they managed to play 0-0 at Genoa and at home against Como. Well done, lads.
Parma now has a lowest total goal average in the league, 10 goals in 8 rounds, for an 1.25 average. Roma is the second-worst in this regard, as 11 total goals in 8 rounds bring them to an average of 1.38. FYI, Como is next, with a 9:5 goal difference. It seems Roma and Parma will reach that same total, 14 goals, by the end of the year.
Probable Lineups
Roma (3-4-2-1): Svilar - Hermoso, Mancini, Ndicka - Celik, Kone, Cristante, Wesley - Soule, Pellegrini - Dybala. Coach Gasperini.
Parma (4-2-3-1): Suzuki - Delprato, Circati, Valenti, Britschgi - Estevez, Keita - Sorensen, Bernabe, Cutrone - Pellegrino. Coach Pecchia.
The Betting Market
You can get 1.53 on Roma and you should take it. The standard price for Roma at home is around 1.60, or at least that's what it was last season when the bookmakers were unsure of Roma's quality yet sure of its propensity to confirm the status of the favourite on their own stadium by claiming three points regardless of how the match goes. Roma wins at home, that's how it is.
Under 2.5 Goals is a real value bet at 1.73 as Roma can't seem to score more than once and Parma is struggling to score, period. Furthermore, Parma is coming here to defend deep. Expect a game where Roma has the ball and Parma sits back. That's an under.
Another good bet is Both Teams To Score: NO at 1.67 as, frankly, we don't expect Parma to do anything here. They're scoreless in four visiting matches this season.
The Betting Verdict
Yes Roma will win this. Just don't bet on handicaps.
We think there's a disproportionate chance that Roma will win this one to nil, as they usually do. Of eleven Roma's matches this season, eight finished with someone winning to nil, and five times it was Roma. If you also factor in Parma's scoring woes - three goals in eight rounds, none on the road - then Roma to win to nil at 2.25 certainly makes a lot of sense.
However, the best bet here is the Under. The reasoning behind this bet is basically the same as the Roma to Win To Nil, except that we can win even with Roma not scoring. We also win if Parma happens to score and Roma doesn't manage to score two. The only real danger here is the 3-0. Last year Parma fell apart and went home with a 5-0 defeat.
The Pick :
Roma 1-0 Parma
