Italian Serie A
2025-12-07 - Lazio vs Bologna
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 14
Stadio Olimpico, Rome, Lazio, Italy (70,634)
Sunday, 07 December 2025, 18:00 CET
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Lazio Team News
It's easy to say it now, but Lazio's 1-0 win against Milan who rested Modric sounds as expected. It came only a few days after losing by the same result in Milano, and is continuing an incredible streak of 8 matches in which at least one team hasn't scored. Lazio either wins to nil or loses to nil, and actually in their 13 rounds played so far there was only one BTTS-Yes result, the crazy 3-3 against Torino.
To predict Lazio's matches, it seems, we only have to deduce if Lazio will be the slightly better or the slightly worse opponent, as more often than not the result will reflect that. Lazio also seems to have stabilized in recent weeks and they'll soon be fighting for Champions League spots if they keep it up. At the moment they're nine points and five spots behind. A win against the 5th-placed Bologna would surely help in this quest.
Bologna Team News
The usually stable Bologna has been undone at home by Cremonese 1-3, and that result came after conceding only 8 goals in 12 rounds. It remains to be seen if this is just an outlier, a sign of Cremonese's quality, or a sign of cracks in Bologna's invincibility. This was only the 3rd defeat in the season for Bologna -- only Milan, Como and Juventus have less.
Bologna has already recovered from the defeat by beating Parma 2-1 at home in the cup.
Probable Lineups
Lazio (4-3-3): Provedel - Marusic, Gila, Romagnoli, Pellegrini - Guendouzi, Basic, Vecino - Isaksen, Castellanos, Zaccagni. Coach Sarri.
Bologna (4-2-3-1): Ravaglia - Zortea, Casale, Lucumi, Miranda - Pobega, Ferguson - Orsolini, Odgaard, Cambiaghi - Castro. Coach Italiano.
The Betting Market
Lazio is priced at 2.60 and that's plenty. The bookmakers are either overrating Bologna or not trusting Lazio at all, not even after they took care of Milan at home and, earlier in the season, Juventus. Maurizio Sarri certainly found a win-to-nil recipe that works both against the big sides and against the small ones.
Under 2.5 Goals is priced at 1.53, perhaps a trend of low Under prices that could be exploited by betting on the opposite. Not in this particular case though, as Lazio's record is all unders, and on the other hand you wouldn't consciously bet on this 1.53.
Both Teams To Score: NO is priced at 1.70 and that sounds good, if you think Lazio will continue with the trend.
The Betting Verdict
Lazio won six of the last seven home H2Hs against Bologna, and we have a hunch that this too will be a Lazio win-to-nil.
Bologna has shown weaknesses on the road and they simply don't perform to the same standard when they travel.
Roma and Milan both won 1-0, and Bologna has incredibly not had any other difficult tests on the road, hence the good record and the high league position.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Lazio 1-0 Bologna
