Italian Serie A
2025-12-27 - Pisa vs Juventus
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 17
Arena Garibaldi, Pisa, Tuscany, Italy (14,869)
Saturday, 27 December 2025, 20:45 CET
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Pisa Team News
Pisa was a bit starstruck when they first came into this league, then seem to have settled in it nicely as they at least started avoiding defeats, and recently they had a regression as they lost to Parma and Lecce to nil.
In that light, the 2-2 at Cagliari last week was a positive result, and it's certainly a number of goals that we did not expect. But it's not the first time for Pisa to play 2-2, they did the same against Sassuolo, Torino and Milan. We can add the 3-2 defeat at Naples to this list.
Pisa can definitely make their contribution to a high-scoring game despite their total absence of good ofensive players. It's incredible that this can happen, but the stats don't lie, all these goals happened. If you're not careful, Pisa will do this to you.
Juventus Team News
Juventus is doing better under Spalletti than it did without him, that's for sure. This is a team that's now in a series of wins that only briefly gets interrupted by some setback. We didn't fully trust Juventus to do the work against the likes of Bologna and Roma, but they did, and their sole non-win under Spalletti remains the 2-1 defeat to Napoli.
There's still a shadow of the doubt lurking above this team, as all of us who are betting on football know how notoriously unreliable Juventus is. We know we're actually betting on the halo effect of some bygone era yet we can't help it.
Problem is, the bookmakers have immediately reduced prices on Juventus as soon as the team started winning. So now you're getting a really low price on this winning streak to continue. You get Inter-like prices on a team that's not as offensively capable as Inter. It probably doesn't make sense to place such a bet, yet what else can you do?
Probable Lineups
Pisa (3-4-1-2): Šemper - Caracciolo, Albiol, Canestrelli - Toure, Piccinini, Aebischer, Leris - Tramoni - Moreo, Nzola. Coach Gilardino.
Inter (3-5-2): Sommer - Akanji, Acerbi, Bastoni - Luis Henrique, Barella, Calhanoglu, Sucic, Dimarco - Lautaro, M.Thuram. Coach Chivu.
The Betting Market
We can only get up to 1.49 on Juventus, and we know how "well" Juventus performs in these situations. For the uninitated, you don't bet on Juventus as a visitor against a relegation candidate. So far in this season, they were in this situation twice.
Juventus won at Cremonese 1-2 and was the first side to take care of this stubborn team, and earlier in the season under Tudor were held to a frustrating 1-1 draw at Verona. It's always a toss-up between 1-1 and 1-2 when Juventus visits a bottom-third team, it seems.
The Over/Under 2.5 Goals market is offering a price of 1.90 on either option. And frankly, there's no way to lean one way or the other.
Both Teams To Score: YES is offering an increased price of 2.05 as Pisa is not really expected to contribute to the totals, with a price of 1.70 on NO.
The Betting Verdict
Juventus always concedes on the road against a relegation candidate, because they play offensively, and when they do, the defence gets exposed. That's why we think Pisa will score here, same as Verona and Cremonese did. BTTS-Yes is the suggested bet.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Pisa 1-2 Juventus
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take Both Teams To Score: YES at 2.05 at Bet365
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Pisa (19th) host Juventus (5th) and although my spreadsheet acknowledges that Juventus are the better team (1045pts - 84 pts better) it immediately flags that the value is with the underdog.
Based on 100 previous games in Serie A where a mid-strong team visits an underdog we've got a results breakdown of HW 18%, Dr 30%, AW 52% - that's right only a 52% chance of Juve winning so we can dismiss that bet at just 1.40 immediately.
Both the home win (odds 7.50) and the draw (odds 4.50) are priced up at very good EV of around 135% and so it really because a personal preference as to how you want to play this.
Pisa are 1-8-7 overall this season and 1-3-4 at home, so I am tempted to discount the home win chances and play the 4.57 for the DRAW at CLoudbet.
You could play the home win if you want big odds (very risky) ...
or you could take PISA +1/2 AH at 2.83 at CLoudbet (or 2.68 at Bet365 for UK punters who cant bet at Cloudbet) if you want both upset results on your side at a great price.
The choice is yours
Based on 100 previous games in Serie A where a mid-strong team visits an underdog we've got a results breakdown of HW 18%, Dr 30%, AW 52% - that's right only a 52% chance of Juve winning so we can dismiss that bet at just 1.40 immediately.
Both the home win (odds 7.50) and the draw (odds 4.50) are priced up at very good EV of around 135% and so it really because a personal preference as to how you want to play this.
Pisa are 1-8-7 overall this season and 1-3-4 at home, so I am tempted to discount the home win chances and play the 4.57 for the DRAW at CLoudbet.
You could play the home win if you want big odds (very risky) ...
or you could take PISA +1/2 AH at 2.83 at CLoudbet (or 2.68 at Bet365 for UK punters who cant bet at Cloudbet) if you want both upset results on your side at a great price.
The choice is yours
