CHAMPIONS LEAGUE BETTING PICK - VILLARREAL V PANATHINAIKOS

Champions League

2009-02-25 - Villarreal vs Panathinaikos

A Sports Betting Pick by RedLine

Villarreal CF v Panathinaikos
Football: Europe, UEFA Champions League
Wednesday, 25th February 2009 - Kickoff 19:45

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In Greece they say you are only as good as your last game. And both teams this weekend, Panathinaikos and Villareal were not so impressive in their local League. Both won with the same score (2-1) against low class sides.

But this is the Champions League, anything goes and even the lower budget teams have the right to dream on for glory.

VILLARREAL (Spain - 4th)

Joan Capdivila, one of Villarreal's best players will miss the game through suspension along with Guille Franco though Nihat has recently returned and Giuseppe Rossi is in good goal scoring form and in Marcus Senna at midfield Villarreal is looking strong.

The Spanish club are at home for the first leg of the Champions League tie, and after beating Sporting Gijon at the weekend should be in good spirits.

Villarreal forward, Nihat Kahveci has said today that he is looking forward to his side's clash with Panathinaikos this Wednesday evening.

The Turk told Marca that he believes not conceding at El Madrigal will be crucial for his team. "We are up against a team who finished first in their group, who have shown that they are strong at home, but we will look at ourselves and try to play at our best level to make it through this round."

Likewise, Nihat's team-mate, Santi Cazorla declared that he believes his side can progress past the Greeks, but that they need to "polish a few minor details".

Coach Pelligrini is trying to keep his players on "earth" saying that they must not underestimate the Greeks. He said "The Greeks should not be taken lightly, they played 2 rounds of qualifiers to get in, and finished 1st in the group"

PANATHINAIKOS (Greece - 2nd)

Panathinaikos made miracles happen when they were bottom of group in first 3 rounds, then finished top. To be honest that really suprised even me. This match is a great chance for Pana to re-establish his good name in Europe.

Panathinaikos will be without Marcelo Mattos and probably without full back Loukas Vintra (but has travelled to Spain). Loukas Vintra will have a late fit test to see if he can make it.

Coach Ten Cate's will stick to the succesfull 5-4-1 that did not allow Inter with Adriano and Zlatan to score at home against Panathinaikos.

Ten Cate has great experience with big clubs as he has worked with Ajax, Barcelona, and Chelsea as assistant manager.

Possible line up for Panathinaikos :
Galinovic, Nilson, Spyropoulos, Goumas (Vintra) ,Sariegi, Simao, Gilberto Silva, Karagounis, Gabriel, Mantzios, Salpigidis.

Match Analysis

I think this match will be fought and won in the central midfield. Villarreal relies a lot on playing through balls to quick and technical forwards. If Panathinaikos controls midfield, his center backs will not get much pressure by Villarreal's forwards, neither in the air, nor from wide crosses.

Villarreal is a great team with speed and technical skills, however I have faith in Ten Cate's formations, strategies, and having the team prepared physically and mentally.

THE BETTING VERDICT

I have more confidence in a away result for Panathinaikos rather then him getting a home result. That's the way this team is built (the Greek International team played in Euro 2004 just like Panathinaikos does in Europe).

Pana knows how to defend, and even if they lose this game it won't be bad if they score at least one goal. I have strong confidence that Panathinaikos has not overachieved yet in Europe this year, they can pull a result tomorrow in Spain, and give a more spicy taste to the rematch in Athens.

Villarreal has been in the top 5 teams of Spain the last 4 years. Still, I estimate they dont have the experience to represent high standards of Spanish teams in Europe like the way Barcelona, Real Madrid or even Athletico Madrid do.

I can't see much goals in this match, if Panathinaikos can keep a clean sheet in Bremen and Milan, well at his worst he wont let more then one goal in.


Possible score 1-0 (1-1)

The Statistics :

BEST BETTING TIP :

So take under 2.5 goals.