English Premier
2010-04-03 - Manchester United vs Chelsea
A Sports Betting Pick by Lamps
Football : England : Premier League
Saturday 3rd April 2010 - Kickoff 12:45pm
Manchester United
Last 5 Manchester United games at home : W5-D0-L0 F17-A1
Champions United currently sit at the top of the table with 72 points, they are 1 point ahead of Chelsea and 4 ahead of Arsenal. This Saturday they host Chelsea in a game that if they win will surely put one hand on the title for Alex Ferguson’s men.
United have been their typical post Xmas selves and by that I mean they simply can not stop winning. When the season is essentially about wins this club is the best around and since Xmas United has won 11 of their 14 games which is nearly perfect! Against Chelsea they face their strongest competition of the season and although it’s at Old Trafford they will want to ensure come 3pm on Saturday that they remain at the top of the table, a win is huge for them but a draw is just as good.
The home form has been sensational as usual for the Red Devils, with 14 wins from 16 games played that is the joint best home form in the league with (yes you guessed it) Chelsea. Ferguson’s men go for the jugular almost from the off and it shows when looking at the stats, 44 home goals has been scored with only 9 conceded. To put that into context that’s an average of nearly 3 goals a game and a goal conceded every other game!
The recent form at home is also flawless, 5 straight wins with 17 scored at the expense of just one goal. The one goal came in the recent home game against Liverpool, in that game a superb Torres header gave the Merseysiders a shock 1-0 lead only for Rooney and Park to hit back and give United all the points. This team just does not concede goals at the moment and given the solid back 4 of Neville, Ferdinand, Vidic and Evra are back fit and playing well it’s going to be hard for Chelsea to break through.
Team news is that United have been handed a huge piece of bad luck as top scorer Rooney is out for at this moment in time approximately 2-4 weeks with an ankle injury picked up in the midweek loss at Bayern in the Champions League. This is not yet official but I’m going to assume he is out given the lack of positivity coming from the United camp, this will mean Berbatov will step up and fill the huge hole left by Rooney. Other than this major blow current long term absentees remain including Anderson, Brown, Hargreaves, Macheda, O’Shea and Owen. I expect the simple swap of Berbatov for Rooney with United looking like:
Predicted Manchester United Lineup :
Van der Sar, Neville, Vidic, Ferdinand, Evra; Carrick, Fletcher, Park, Valencia; Berbatov, Scholes.
Chelsea
Last 5 Chelsea games away : W2-D2-L1 F10-A4
Second placed Chelsea has had the luxury of a week off given their early exit in the Champions League before this huge game against Manchester United. Ancelotti and his staff will be fully prepared as they enter the Theatre of Dreams knowing realistically they must win if they want to be champions come the end of May.
The Blues suffered a major blip away at Blackburn a few weeks back which ultimately cost them the lead in the table. Chelsea was only able to draw at mid-tabled Blackburn whilst United kept winning and finally took charge at the top. Since then Chelsea has thumped Portsmouth(away 5-0) and Aston Villa (home 7-1) suggesting that they are back to their best and will be entering this game on a high knowing their opponents may be a little rattled following their midweek loss in Europe plus the major injury set back to Rooney.
Unfortunately for Chelsea is the general away form of the club, yes overall it ranks as the second best with 8 wins from 16 games and a grand total of 28 points but the reality is when the pressure has been on the Blues have crumbled. In the 8 games Chelsea have failed to win they suffered defeats at Man City, Wigan, Villa and Everton whilst drawing at Hull, West Ham, Birmingham and most recently Blackburn.
Now losing to City, Villa and Everton is not that bad as all three are good sides but dropping points to the others is dreadful and simply not good enough for a title winning side. The Blues have had one fantastic away day winning 3-0 at the Emirates but that was way back in December when this side was on a 4 game winning streak.
This current side as won 2 of the last 3 overall but in the last 5 away games again it is far from convincing, just 2 wins from 5 played. In that run the Blues have dropped points to Blackburn, Everton and Hull whilst beating Burnley and Portsmouth two sides that between them have just 12 wins all season!
I was at the recent Villa game and Chelsea looked very average until the late first half penalty gifted them the momentum again and after that every shot seemed to find the back of the net as Villa self destructed more than Chelsea took them apart. I can’t back a side that with Arsenal aside has not gone to anywhere daunting and taken the 3 points in a huge game like this and come Saturday the Blues will still be in second place.
Team news is that Ivanovic has a chance of returning as he has started light training on Tuesday, if he is fit come Saturday he will start ahead of Ferreira who has been solid in the Serbians absence. My gut feel is it’s stupid to rush such a key player back so soon and the Portuguese Ferreira will start at right back along side Alex, Terry and Zhirkov in defence.
I also expect Ancelotti to drop Deco who despite playing well last week probably isn’t physically strong enough against United’s midfield so Ballack will start ahead of him. Other than that it’s as you were last week
Predicted Chelsea Lineup :
Cech, Ferreira, Alex, Terry, Zhirkov; Mikel, Ballack, Lampard, Malouda, Anelka; Drogba.
The Betting Verdict
I must respect United’s home form this season it’s nearly flawless.
Given the poor Chelsea results away from home, Manchester United are going to be a tough nut to - with or without Rooney.
The best Chelsea will get from this is a draw. United to remain top by 3pm is the pick.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Man United 1-1 Chelsea
