AFL Aussie Rules
2010-05-02 - Carlton Blues vs Collingwood Magpies
A Sports Betting Pick by Costanzo
Football : Aussie Rules : AFL Premiership
Venue : MCG, Melbourne
Sunday, 2nd May 2010 - Start 2:12 pm AEST
This is rivalry round and this match-up is the longest running and most fierce. The players do not feel it too much, but for the fans in Melbourne and Victoria this can get heated.
The two biggest supported clubs clash on one of the biggest stages of world sport, the MCG. Both teams are coming off great wins and will be looking to assert themselves into the top section of the table.
Carlton Blues
The Blues were enormous in their upset against the Geelong Cats on Monday. They pretty much dominated from start to finish, although thanks to some inaccurate Geelong kicking for goal the margin was probably further than it could have been. Take nothing away from the Blues though as they were great and won at least 13 of the 18 positions.
The Carlton forward was meant to be struggling this year with the departure of gun Brendan Fevola. But they have posted scores of over 100 three times and always looked menacing when in their forward 50. This has a lot to do with their three indigenous players, Eddie Betts, Jeff Garlett and Chris Yarran. Betts, the most established of the three has been great, but now with the assistance of the other two they have threats everywhere inside 50, and all they need is a consistent big guy whether it is Lachie Henderson or Setanta o’Hailpin, and Carlton will be a serious threat to the competition.
The Blues midfield led by Chris Judd is in imperious form with Judd’s efforts inspiring the younger guys like Bryce Gibbs and Marc Murphy along with the likes of Ryan Houlihan and the slick Kade Simpson. These players all have great foot skills and if they continue their great start to the season inside 50s should be no issue, and as a result scoring opportunities should be frequent.
The defence of the Blues will be tested again this week with an explosive mix of big and small in the Magpies’ forward line. The likes of Dennis Armfield, Jordan Russel and Michael Jamison will have another tough week, but their rebound out of the defence is a positive for the Blues.
Matthew Kreuzer continues to develop into one of the league’s better all-round ruckmen, as he can go forward and score, and his mobility is rivalled only by Naitanui of the Eagles.
Expect the Blues to the mentally ready for this but the extra day of rest for the Pies could play a role late in game.
Collingwood Magpies
The Magpies beat Essendon convincingly in the ANZAC day clash at the MCG, but this fixture is going to ask a lot more of them than the poor Bombers. Collingwood are a side that usually perform well on the big stage and in front of 80,000 fans this Sunday afternoon should be no exception.
The forward line might be on the up after the maligned Travis Cloke kicked 4 goals on the weekend. Chris Dawes also offered himself as a big target inside the Pies’ forward 50, and with two big guys, it promises to be a good day for the likes of Leon David and Paul Medhurst. They are goal sneaks that play well when the attention is off them. If the Blues defence goes to each Pie forward on their merit, there could be some mismatches that will allow Pies players to score with comfort.
The midfield of Collingwood is in terrific form. Led by the young Dayne Beams the ball winners of Collingwood have been using it well and not turning it over a great deal. This week will test them as Carlton is sure to utilise pressure as a necessary tactic to stop these youthful Pie midfielders.
Collingwood may get Simon Prestigiacomo back from injury this week, and he
will either get Henderson or the Irishman Setanta. If he does you can expect him to win his match up against a forward that is far from consistent. Harry O’Brien continues to play well off the half back line and his ability to break tackles and put the throttle down with his speed makes him one of the game’s players’ to watch.
Overall Collingwood have a slight edge in the forward line, a slight edge in the midfield and a bigger edge in the defence. If they play to their capabilities they should get the 4 points on Sunday.
The Tip
Collingwood to win looks fairly solid to me, as long as you can withstand an up-down match where they could look like losing at stages.
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take Collingwood to win at 1.55 or better
