EURO 2012 BETTING PICK - WALES V ENGLAND

Euro 2012

2011-03-26 - Wales vs England

A Sports Betting Pick by Auls

Wales v England
Football : Euro 2012 Qualifier
Saturday 26 March 2011 - Kickoff 3pm
This game is live on TV

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Wales

The Wales squad went through a brief period in the early part of the last decade where they were close to qualifying for a major international tournament, but I would say that does not look the case these days. They already find themselves outside of the mix this year for Euro 2012 tournament next Summer, but would dearly like to throw a spanner in the works for their neighbours.

Gary Speed takes charge for his first competitive game as the manager of Wales with the team sitting bottom of the group after losing their opening 3 games. A lack of goals has been the problem for the team, scoring just 1 goal in those games as they sit 10 points behind Montenegro at the top of the group. Wales lost their only home game 0-1 to Bulgaria.

The big news for Wales was the loss of Gareth Bale, easily the biggest threat in the Welsh side. Bale has a hamstring issue that may even rule him out of Tottenham's game with Real Madrid in the Champions League. Aaron Ramsey has been handed the captaincy for this game.

England

England's preparation for the game was overshadowed by the re-appointment of John Terry as captain of the side. That decision, and the manner in which it was made, has only increased the pressure on Fabio Capello. The Italian must surely be aware that anything but a win for his side may just cost him his job.

A disappointing World Cup looked to have been put aside when England won their initial two group games in this qualifying campaign, but all the negatives came flooding back in the 0-0 home draw with Montenegro that leaves England in 2nd place in the group, 3 points behind the Montenegro team. England did win their only away game in the group so far, beating Switzerland 1-3 last September.

Rio Ferdinand has been out of the Manchester United side for about 6 weeks and his absence here means Phil Jagielka could be given the opportunity to start alongside Terry. Jack Wilshire is also pushing for a starting berth, while Wayne Rooney will be partnered by Andy Carroll according to all of the sources.

Head to Head

Wales and England met most recently in the qualifying campaign for the 2006 World Cup.

England beat Wales 0-1 at the Millenium Stadium during that campaign, courtesy of a Joe Cole goal in the 2nd half.

Prediction

I completely understand why England are the favourites to win this game- on paper it should be a comfortable day out for the England boys, but unfortunately the game is not played on paper.

I cannot recommend picking the away side at 1.44 in a derby game as the odds are far too short for me to be considering. Wales are going to be backed by their largest crowd since they last met in England and this could take the shape of a number of FA Cup ties where the 'lower League' club takes on the 'Premier League' team.

Wales' players will have been told all week by members of the press that they have no chance to win this game, and that can only inspire a team against local rivals. The loss of Gareth Bale takes away a big threat for the home team, but they play an England team that has been having their own issues.

I truly think this game will have the same feel as the last time they played in the qualifying groups for an international tournament- I can see the Welsh being completely up for the game and England having to ride out a storm in the opening 20-25 minutes. From there, I would expect England to slowly start taking control and turning ht screw on the Welsh team.

The breakthrough may take a little bit of time to come about if the game does take that shape. I do feel England's quality will eventually shine through, so I will take them to win this game in the 2nd half after a well contested first half.

The Statistics :

The Pick :

BEST BETTING TIP :

I'll back Draw HT-England FT @ 4.33 BetFred/Canbet (1 UNIT)

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