NCAA Football
2011-10-22 - Kansas State at Kansas
A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted
American Football : North America : NCAAF
Saturday, October 22nd, 2011, 12:00PM US
(5:00PM GMT)
PREVIEW
Another spread I don't understand. Kansas State opened up as 12.5 point favourites and now they are giving up 10.5 so I feel it's worth getting involved as they look good for a big win here, despite being on the road against a State rival.
Kansas State are ranked 11th now, with a perfect 6-0 mark that guarantees they go bowling once the regular season is done. Last week, they outshot Texas Tech to win 41-34 and will feel confident of beating Kansas, who they have beaten their last 2 meetings. Last year Kansas State won 59-7, and Kansas are on a 4 game losing streak that leaves them with a 2-4 record and a 0-3 Big 12 record.
Kansas could not hold off Oklahoma last week, who racked up 610 yards in beating them 47-17, shutting them down completely in the 2nd half, where Kansas managed just 6 yards through the final 2 quarters.
The Kansas Jayhawks have allowed 40 or more points in each of their last 5 games, and have given up 66 or more on 2 occasions. When that kind of defence comes up against a balanced and prolific attack the likes of which Kansas State boast, it can only end in points. Poor Kansas are giving up 49 points per game and about 565 yards per game on average, making them the worst defence in the country.
On offence, Kansas do have the 23rd best rushing attack but then they are giving up an ugly 227 yards on the ground, completely negating all the good work their offence does. Kansas State QB Klein has can both throw and run the football, and has a great team to work with. What has really helped this team though is the defence, which is stifling opponents and coming up with opportunistic turnovers and scores. Against Texas Tech they have 5 takeaways.
The one stat I will leave you with is that Kansas State have won 5 of their 6 games by 7 points or less. Along with that, they are on the road, against a team out for revenge. Maybe this is what is dropping the spread but I feel there is too much talent here for them to not stomp on Kansas like they did last season.
BETTING VERDICT
I'm going to stick to my bet on Kansas State, happy to give up just 10.5 instead of more.
The Pick :
Kansas State
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take Kansas State -10.5 @ 1.95 (Pinnacle)
