SPANISH LA LIGA BETTING PICK - REAL MADRID V BARCELONA

Spanish La Liga

2011-12-10 - Real Madrid vs Barcelona

A Sports Betting Pick by FootyGaffa

Real Madrid v Barcelona
Football : La Liga Primera
Saturday 10/12/2011 - Kickoff 22.00 (local)

---

Real Madrid

There is not much more than you can say about Real Madrid's form this season other than it has been absolutely outstanding!

Real Madrid have only had a minor blip at the end of September when they lost away to an inspired Levante side and got held to a goalless draw the following week in Santander but apart from that they have a 100% record in all matches in La Liga and the Champions League. Madrid have now won their last 15 games in a row.

Madrid are destroying their oppenents this season averaging 3.5 goals a game in the league and now Jose Mourinho seems to have got them defensivly solid at the back as they have only conceded 10 goals in the league this season. (0.71 per game)

The only real injury Madrid have at the moment is Carvalho so expect to see Jose continuing with Ramos and Pepe in the heart of defence with Arbeloa and Brazilian Marcelo at right and left back.

The Madrid midfield will be key for me and knowing how Jose is slightly defensively minded I think he might leave out the skillful Ozil and instead opt for the extra protection and ball winning capabilities of Diarra togther with Alonso and Khedira, this will allow Di Maria out wide and Ronaldo to wander as they please with Benzema getting the nod to lead the line.

Possible Real Madrid lineup : (4-2-3-1)
Casillas, Arbeloa, Ramos, Pepe, Marcelo, Khedira, Alonso, Diarra, Di Maria, Ronaldo, Benzema

Barcelona

Barcelona find themselves trailing Madrid by 3pts in the league having played one game more and it seems people are starting to doubt their invincibility this season probably because it is a pretty tall order to achieve the same as they did last term.

It's their away form that has been slightly questionable with 3 draws and that defeat at Getafe last month that makes this fixture all the more important as a defeat would leave it very hard to catch up with a Madrid team that don't look like shipping many points, if any, to the lessor teams in the La Liga.

Despite this Barca still have the best goals against record in the league having only given away 7 goals all season which is impressive given they have played the majority of games without their recognised defenders.

Pep Guariola has a full squad to pick from for this match and I reckon he will revert back to the 4-3-3 system that we are so fimilar with when we watch Barca. I think he will go with Puyol and Pique in a back four along with Alves and Abidal.

In midfield Busquest will play holding midfielder with Xavi and Iniseta orchestrating the Tiki-taka in the centre. It's the front three where Pep has to make a decision as David Villa has been pretty sub standard this season to be honest and he has to decide on whether to stick with him or go with Fabregas instead.

I would give Villa the benefit of the doubt as he is a big game player and can be effective from wide positions. For me new boy Sanchez should get the nod over Pedro and that just leaves Messi who's name was on the team sheet already.....

Possible Barcelona lineup : (4-3-3)
Valdes, Alves, Pique, Puyol, Abidal, Iniesta, Xavi, Busquets, Sanchez, Villa, Messi

THE BETTING VERDICT

One thing is for sure we are in for an absolute belter of a game here and I can only see goals getting scored.

Best price on a Madrid win is 2.4, you can get 3.1 on a Barcelona win and 3.0 on the draw.

These odds, especially the 2/1 available for Barca, really does reflect how far Jose Mourinho has taken and improved his squad of stars compared to last season when they were not quite properly gelled as a team and Barca were only about 8/5 to win.

I can't help thinking that may be this will be Real Madrid's season, however, Madrid have only won one of their last 11 meetings with Barcelona in all competitions (W1 D3 L7). Sure the price on Barcelona is tempting but for me the result of the match is just too hard to call.

I instead will look at the goals market with both teams to score looking very likely although the price of 1.67 is not so appealing. I think with so much attacking talent on the pitch that over 2.5 goals at 1.8 (Stan James) looks the bet for me. Messi and Ronaldo are both on 17 goals for the season and Higuain has 15 so I will stick to my initial thoughts of loads of goals.

Also consider Messi as an anytime goalscorer at a massive 2.38 (by his standards) - he has scored on his last five visits to the Bernabeu in all competitions (seven goals)

The Statistics :

The Pick :

BEST BETTING TIP :

Main Bet:
Take Over 2.5 goals to be scored at 1.8 at Stan James

---