Italian Serie A
2012-01-29 - Lecce vs Inter Milan
A Sports Betting Pick by ROzsolt
Football: Seria A
Venue: Stadio Via del Mare, Lecce
Sunday 29th January – Kickoff time: 15:00 GMT+1
Lecce (19th W-3 D-4 L-12)
Lecce’s current situation is desperate, but there is still hope within the squad, goalkeeper Massimiliano Benassi stating that it’s possible to avoid the drop.
Their poor home games are the main reason for only collecting 13 points this season, 85% of those points being obtained away from home. Lecce is actually the only team from the top European leagues yet to win a home game this season.
Manuel Blasi returned to Lecce this week from Parma, the midfielder previously played for the club in the 1998-99 season.
Giandonato, Falcone, Esposito and Ferrario have all been ruled out, while midfielder Giacomazzi is back after serving a suspension.
Probable Lecce line-up :
Oddo, Carrozzieri, Tomovic
Cuadrado, Giacomazzi, Obodo, Oliveira, Brivio
Michele, Muriel
Inter (4th W-11 D-2 L-6)
The 2-0 Coppa Italia defeat in Naples denied Inter the possibility to defend their trophy, failing to reach the semi-finals for the first time in nine years.
The loss also snapped Inter’s 8 match winning streak in all competitions, but the seven consecutive Seria A wins allowed them to climb all the way up to the 4th place after a disastrous start.
Inter have won their last four away games with 1-0, the last one of those victories being achieved against rivals AC Milan. The Rossoneri dominated possession for long periods, but Abate’s error allowed Milito to score the decisive goal.
Milito is actually the top scorer of the team with 8 goals so far, while Pazzini bagged 5. Pazzini scored his only hattrick in Seria A against Lecce, back then playing for Sampdoria.
Probable Inter line-up :
Maicon, Lucio, Samuel, Chivu
Faraoni, Zanetti, Cambiasso, Alvarez
Pazzini, Milito
The Betting Verdict
As I mentioned Lecce failed to win at home this season, while Inter is in top form, so it’s hard to believe that the hosts could pull off a surprising result here.
Lecce also has a poor record against Inter, losing 7 of the last 8 games. Even without Snejder, who is not back to full fitness, Inter should control the game, but there is possible for Lecce to hit once, let’s not forget they’ve scored 3 against AC Milan (3-4).
Four of Inter’s five victories on the road were obtained with just one goal margin, the percentage of Lecce’s home defeats by one goal being almost the same, the Giallorossi registering five losses by one goal from the total of seven.
It’s a likely away win for Inter, but as the spreadsheet points out there is not much value in taking them, so I suggest trying Inter to win by one goal which is way better priced and according to the stats it happened quite often in games involving these two.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Lecce 1-2 Inter Milan
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take Inter to win by one goal at 3.60 at Bet365Confidence: 5/10
