Icelandic Football
2012-07-05 - Grindavik vs Valur
A Sports Betting Pick by Cornholio
Icelandic Pepsi League (Top league)
Round 10
Thursday 5 July, 2012 - Kickoff 19:15 GMT
Nine rounds have been played in the Icelandic championship.
There are not surprises at the top where everything points to a duel between FH Hafnarfjordur and KR Reykjavik. FH lead with 20 points but KR follows with 19 points. Stjarnan comes 3rd with 16 points.
Fram Reykjavik have disappointed the most and are second last with only 6 points after being predicted to be in the top battle this season. Valur Reykjavik have also disappointed a bit but Grindavik finally seem to be heading down after years in the relegation battle. Let‘s look at the clash between the two.
Grindavik 0-3-6 12:27 (12th)
Ever since Grindavik got back to the top league in 2008 they have been in the lower part of the table and have just managed to escape relegation last two season where they finished 10th both times. However, everything points to Grindavik relegating this time since they have only 3 points from 3 draws after nince rounds and have conceded 27 goals, an average of 3 goals per game. However, with 13 rounds still to go it‘s too soon to say Grindavik are doomed and they are only 5 points away from the secure 10th place.
Former Icelandic team and Stoke manager, Gudjon Thordarson, is now in charge at Grindavik, but like so often in recent years he isn‘t delivering what people expect of him. After a good start in the first round where they managed a 1-1 draw away against FH they have been terrible, especially defencively.
In the following three games they conceded 4 goals in each of them before „only“ conceding three times in the game after that. This has placed them at rock bottom with 7 more goals conceded than the next team. Their record is a poor 0 3 6, 12:27, with two of their three draws coming away.
If Grindavik aren‘t to go down, at least too easy, they need to tighten their defence real good but, on the other hand, their scoring of 12 goals isn‘t too bad comparing to the teams sitting in places 5-12.
Valur 4-0-5 13:12 (8th)
Valur were one of the teams predicted to be in the upper part of the table, maybe not the top battle but not far from a European place. In short they have disappointed and now sit in 8th place with 12 points, 8 points behind the leaders.
Instability seems to be Valur‘s main problem. After a solid start with two wins in the first two rounds they lost next three before a four game run of WLWL. While scoring only 1 goal less than at the same time last year they have now conceded three times as many, 12 goals compared with only four last year.
Unless Valur get more power up front, like the top three, Valur need to tighten up at back and only keeping a clean sheet in two of the nine games played wasn‘t what people expected of them.
The visit to Grindavik will be their second away game in a row where they will seek to get back on track after losing away against IBV 2-0 even though they didn‘t play too bad there. With Grindavik‘s poor defending this will surely be a great oportunity for Valur to do just so.
Head to head
Since 1998 Grindavik and Valur have met 21 times, with one game being in the league cup this year. Valur have total dominance winning 12 of those 21. Grindavik have won 4 times and 5 have been drawn.
Last time Grindavik won was at home in 2009 but before that they won in 2003. Valur have won last 3 games at Grindavik and 4 of last 5. Also 4 of last 5 at Grindavik have been over 2.5 goals.
Betting Verdict
This seems pretty clear cut and everythings points to Valur winning and the game being over 2.5 goals. However, the trick is to find the value. Overs is currently going for 1.6 or so but Valur winning is priced at around 1.9 so I would rather take that.
The Pick :
Grindavik 1-3 Valur
