English Premier
2006-11-29 - Aston Villa vs Manchester City
A Sports Betting Pick by Gooner
Aston Villa are favourites to beat Manchester City here at Villa Park - but should we bet on them again after their weekend failure?ASTON VILLA
Villa were pretty dire in their 1-1 home draw with Boro, and that was their 3rd home draw in 4 fixtures suggesting that there is an inability about Villa to dominate games.
Indeed with 8 draws from their first 13 fixtures Villa are quickly becoming the "draw kings" of the Premier League and six of those have been by 1-1 score lines.
Aston_Villa Home Form
25/11/06 D 1-1 v Middlesbrough
05/11/06 W 2-0 v Blackburn
21/10/06 D 1-1 v Fulham
14/10/06 D 1-1 v Tottenham
23/09/06 W 2-0 v Charlton
27/08/06 W 2-0 v Newcastle
23/08/06 W 2-1 v Reading
MANCHESTER CITY
Of course the main reason for betting on the home win is the awful away form of visiting Manchester City. They've list six of their first 7 away matches this season and have conceded 15 goals away from home.
That is almost in complete contrast to their home form where they are unbeaten and have let in just one goal !!
I can't explain it - other than the fact that this has got into players heads now - and their confidence seems to drain away as soon as they hope on the team bus.
Man_City Away Form
25/11/06 L 0-1 v Liverpool
04/11/06 L 0-1 v Charlton
21/10/06 L 0-4 v Wigan
30/09/06 D 1-1 v Everton
17/09/06 L 2-4 v Blackburn
11/09/06 L 0-1 v Reading
20/08/06 L 0-3 v Chelsea
HEAD TO HEAD
One good piece of new for Citeh fans is that they do have a good recent record against Villa and have won five of the last 6 league clashes against them (at all venues) and also knocked Villa out of last seasons FA Cup.
Head to Head Form
24/04/06 Aston_Villa 0-1 Man_City
07/05/05 Aston_Villa 1-2 Man_City
04/04/04 Aston_Villa 1-1 Man_City
28/08/02 Aston_Villa 1-0 Man_City
16/12/00 Aston_Villa 2-2 Man_City
However, that was all prior to Martin O'Neill taking over.
THE VERDICT
Tricky, but I will take the home side to win this one - but I will also be taking a 20% stake saver on the 1-1 exact score as well.
Remember the three times that Villa have failed to win at home this season all finished 1-1.
The Pick :
Aston Villa 1-0 Man City (or 1-1 draw)
BEST BETTING TIP :
So get on ASTON VILLA to win -but remember to take that Asian handicap -0.5 bet as it's the same bet - but at a much better price.But also put a 20% stake on the 1-1 exact score so that you'll get your stake back if it happens again.
Best price is 6.50 at VCBet or 7.10 at BetFair
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take ASTON VILLA on the -0.5 handicap.
