AFL Aussie Rules
2007-07-01 - Collingwood vs Hawthorn
A Sports Betting Pick by Gooner
Although it's tempting to sit out this game and end the weekend all smug at 4-0 in AFL betting .. I won't - I'll follow my sheet one more time and make one more bet :Collingwood (8-4) v Hawthorn (8-4)
Where and when :
Sunday, July 1, Telstra Dome, 5.10pm.
Head to head :
Collingwood 93 wins, Hawthorn 51 wins.
Last time :
Collingwood 16.17 (113) d Hawthorn 11.2 (68),
Round 17, 2006, at the MCG.
ANALYSIS
It's been a while since both sides have been this good -and with both Collingwood and Hawthorn fighting for second spot on the competition ladder we look set for a great footy clash.
And in contrast to previous clashes where the score has blown out (usually on Collingwoods side) I think that we are in for a bit of a tight tough tussle and so the bookies margin of +10.5 pioints on Collingwood seems high.
OK - I know that Anthony Rocca is out - and the absence of the big man will make it harder for Collingwood - but the Magpies have won six of their last eight games ... so that just seems too big a start to me.
Perhaps it is also because Hawthorn beat Carlton by 100 points last time out - but we also saw Carlton lose by 77 points at Fremantle yesterday - so that century margin has to be taken with a grain of salt.
THE VERDICT
The public have got on Hawthorns side here - and so it should not be too much surprise that we're going to oppose them - at least as far as that handicap goes.
This is a top of the table clash - and I expect both sids t be fully committed and there is a good chance that there will not be more than a goal in this game.
The Pick :
Collingwood with a +10.5 point start
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take COLLINGWOOD with +10.5 PTS to keep it close and maybe win it outright.
