Champions League
2009-04-07 - Villarreal vs Arsenal
A Sports Betting Pick by Gooner
Football: Europe, UEFA Champions League
Tuesday 7th April 2009 - Kickoff 19:45
VILLARREAL (Spain)
Home Form : Europe 2-2-0 : Domestic 4th 9-3-2
Villarreal reached their second UEFA Champions League quarter-final by beating Greek side Panathinaikos FC 3-2 on aggregate in the last 16 (1-1 home, 2-1 away). Prior to that Manuel Pellegrini's men had finished second in Group E with a record of W2 D3 L1.
Villarreal are unbeaten at the Madrigal stadium in the Champions League, with 4 wins and 6 draws from the 10 games played here, and the common scorelines are 1-0, 0-0 and 1-1.
Villarreal are very much a "homer" side right now - with four wins on the trot at the Madrigal in La Liga, but no wins in their last eight away games in domestic competition.
Villarreal Team News
Villarreal have some injury problems to deal with, with Spain winger Santi Cazorla set to miss the remainder of the season. The influential 24-year-old fractured his fibula during his side's 3-0 defeat at Almeria on Saturday.
Ruben Gracia (thigh) is in coach Manuel Pellegrini's line-up but fellow midfielder Bruno Sorriano out, while Turkey striker Nihat Kahveci is also back to full fitness.
ARSENAL (England)
Away Form : Europe 1-1-2 : Domestic 4th 7-5-3
Arsenal advanced only after a nerve-shredding shoot-out against their last-16 opponents AS Roma, prevailing 7-6 on penalties after a 1-1 aggregate draw (1-0 home, 0-1 away). Prior to facing Roma, they had taken second place in Group G with a record of W3 D2 L1.
Arsenal have come through a 6 week period of very indifferent football during late January and February, where they drew five league games on the trot, and frankly didn't look like they could score in a month of Saturdays.
Of course injuries took a big toll on the line-up - Arsenal have used 24 players already in the Champions League (only Juventus and Real Madrid have used more) - but the players are starting to return for Arsenal with Fabregas and Adebayor obviously making the side stronger last weekend as Arsenal cruised past Manchester City 2-0 for their 4th straight league win.
Arsenal Team News :
Arsenal striker Robin van Persie has been ruled out of Tuesday's Champions League quarter-final first leg against Villarreal with a groin injury.
The 25-year-old picked up the problem on international duty with the Netherlands and missed Arsenal's 2-0 win over Manchester City on Saturday.
Samir Nasri (virus) and Theo Walcott (knee) have been passed fit. But Eduardo (groin), Abou Diaby (thigh) and Tomas Rosicky remain sidelined and Andrey Arshavin is ineligible.
Arsenal Squad :
Almunia, Sagna, Toure, Gallas, Clichy, Nasri, Denilson, Fabregas, Walcott, Adebayor, Fabianski, Song, Silvestre, Djourou, Gibbs, Ramsey, Bendtner, Eboue, Vela, Merida, Wilshere.
Head to Head
These sides have met once before in European competition back in 2005/06 when they faced each other in a Champions League semi-final.
Arsenal won the first leg 1-0 at home, and earned ia spot in the Final thanks to a 0-0 draw in the second leg in Spain, with goalkeeper Jens Lehmann saving a last-minute Juan Román Riquelme penalty that would have taken the tie into extra time.
Villarreal's record against English clubs is: P9 W3 D5 L1. At home their record is: P5 W2 D3 L0. In those five past meetings with English opposition at El Madrigal, they conceded just one goal.
Arsenal's overall record against Spanish sides is: W8 D5 L10, but in Spain, the Gunners record is: W2 D2 L6.
THE BETTING VERDICT
Arsenal don't have a great away record in Europe, which I think is simply a factor of the higher quality of the opposition at this level, and perhaps a tendancy of manager Arsene Wenger to name weaker sides at the end of group stages once qualification is assured.
Villarreal are very hard to beat at home in Europe (impossible so far), they've drawn 0-0 with Manchester United twice here, they've drawn 0-0 with Arsenal, and also beaten Inter Milan 1-0 as well.
Arsenal are unbeaten in 17 domestic games, but in that run was the 0-1 defeat away at AS Roma in the CL 2nd round, and to me it was a poor display - one that's often glossed over quickly thanks to the good fortune in the penalty shootout.
Given all the statistical information - I am surprised to see the bookmakers making Arsenal slight favourites based on the form - and perhaps that instead reflects the likely weight of money coming in from "fan-boys" rather than an expecation of result.
Nowever, one angle that appears to be overlooked is that with a two-legged system the first match is often a very, very cagey affair with few teams actually throwing caution to the wind. In the first leg of the quarter-finals four of the eight the games had 0/1 goals in them and SIX of the games finishing under 2.5 goals.
So if we are going to see 0,1,2 goals in this game, then perhaps the draw chances are significantly higher than I've estimated down below?
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Villarreal 1-1 Arsenal (maybe 0-0)
BEST BETTING TIP :
I've talked myself into backing the DRAW at prices of 11/5 (3.20).
