Tennis
2019-01-18 - Marin Cilic vs Fernando Verdasco
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
Tennis: Australian Open Third Round
Friday 18th January 2018 - Scheduled 8:30pm
British Time: 9:30am
Preview
A couple of lapses of concentration and perhaps not playing the big points as well as he would have liked made the Second Round win over Mackenzie McDonald a little more awkward for Marin Cilic. He still managed to get through in four sets and a good start to the Australian Open has seen Cilic reach the Third Round with just that one set dropped.
Now he faces someone who will be much more familiar to Cilic when taking on veteran Fernando Verdasco who has produced some solid tennis over the last couple of years even if the consistency is not where it once was. The Spaniard had his best Grand Slam performance at the Australian Open back in 2009 but this is just the second time in six attempts he has reached the Third Round and at 35 years old the best days are behind Verdasco.
So far he hasn't been troubled in the draw, but Verdasco has to be grateful for what looked like a couple of very winnable matches to open the tournament. Now he has to take a big step up when facing a player Ranked as highly as Marin Cilic and over the last couple of years we have seen Verdasco's numbers take a serious dent when he has been playing the better players on the Tour.
While his overall hard court numbers in 2017 and 2018 are decent and Verdasco has made a good start to 2019, when he has played top 20 Ranked opponents there is a significant drop in both serve and return stats. It is no surprise considering Verdasco is past his best, but I also think it leaves him vulnerable to failing to cover this number of games in this Third Round match.
Marin Cilic has been a steady force on the hard courts and his serve and return games look to be in rude health so far in this match. Yes he had some tough moments in the Second Round against McDonald, but Verdasco's return game is not what it once was and that was demonstrated in the two wins Cilic had over him in 2018.
Those were not played on the hard courts, but the point is still there.
Last year Cilic held 91% of the time against Verdasco and broke him just under 27% of the time and I think he is going to be the dominant player in this one too. The veteran Spaniard is just 1-11 in his last twelve matches against top ten Ranked opponents on the hard courts in the Grand Slams and seven of his last eight losses to those players within those parameters have seen him fail to get within the number handicapped for this match.
I am expecting Cilic to have the majority of the break point chances and I think the Verdasco serve will falter a couple more times than the Croatian's serve does which will lead to the Runner Up of 2018 moving into the second week with a good, solid win.
Prediction
Lay the games with the 2018 Runner Up of the Australian Open.
The Pick :
Marin Cilic 3-0 Fernando Verdasco
