Tennis
2025-11-13 - Carlos Alcaraz vs Lorenzo Musetti
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
Tennis: ATP Finals Group Stage
Thursday 13th November 2025 - Scheduled 8:30pm
7:30pm (British Time)
Preview
There are sixteen permutation of final results in this Group Stage that would see Carlos Alcaraz make it through to the Semi Final of the ATP Finals and just two that would see him miss out.
Most players who have won two matches in the Group Stage would expect to progress and a win by Alex De Minaur earlier in the day would secure the World Number 1's spot in the last four.
If Taylor Fritz has won the earlier Singles match, that would mean that Carlos Alcaraz needs to win at least a set in this one if he is going to progress.
That would also mean Lorenzo Musetti HAS to win in straight sets, while an Alex De Minaur win would leave the Italian needing any kind of victory to move out of the Group having lost the opening match.
Unlike most football tournaments, matches are not played simultaneously at the end of the Group Stage at this tennis event and so the situation for both players will only become clear once the first match is completed.
It could be a potential factor- will Carlos Alcaraz be fully focused if Alex De Minaur has won and already seen his place booked in the Semi Final? That could depend on how things are shaking up in the other Group, but a Jannik Sinner win on Wednesday will mean the Runner Up in this section will have to face him in the Semi Final.
This could double down the focus for Carlos Alcaraz who may want to retain some momentum by winning all three Group matches, which is the only way he can guarantee top spot in the section.
He will have a lot of respect for Lorenzo Musetti who has shown he can dig into the reserves to keep himself alive in the event having won the last four games played against Alex De Minaur to beat the Australian in the last match in the Group. A defear would have meant elimination, but Musetti showed he could dig deep enough to claw himself out of a hole and has had a day of rest between matches this time.
The three matches played between the players this season will have underlined how competitive Lorenzo Musetti can be against Carlos Alcaraz, although all three were played on clay courts.
Previous hard court meetings between the players have been dominated by the World Number 1 and Carlos Alcaraz has really been able to dictate behind the serve.
This has been a tournament where Alcaraz still has room for improvement on the serve, but he has been returning efficiently and the Lorenzo Musetti serve was under attack against both of his previous opponents. Neither is really as strong as Carlos Alcaraz on the return and he could grind down the home player, regardless of the overall situation for the World Number 9 as far as the progression permutations go.
Those previous hard court results against Carlos Alcaraz are also a factor and this is a match that feels like it could end in a similar scoreline that was faced by Lorenzo Musetti in his opening defeat.
Prediction
There is the possibility that this match gets away from Lorenzo Musetti if the permutations begin to move against him.
The Pick :
Carlos Alcaraz 2-0 Lorenzo Musetti
