Italian Serie A
2026-01-10 - AS Roma vs Sassuolo
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 20
Stadio Olimpico, Rome, Lazio, Italy (70,634)
Saturday, 10 January 2026, 18:00 CET
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Roma Team News
Roma has topped the Serie A table at one point, but hasn't been mentioned as a scudetto candidate for a while now. They're 5th, at 36 points, while Inter is at 42 and the Nerazzuri also have one game less. That's a nine-point difference and it's difficult to expect Roma to make up for the lost ground, especially as they can't seem to win any derbies. They lost to Napoli, Juventus and Atalanta in the last month and a half.
Interestingly, they won all other matches, with the exception of an unfortunate defeat to Cagliari that happened solely because of a red card for Roma.
Sassuolo Team News
It's been a while since Sassuolo did anything meaningful. They're without their talisman Domenico Berardi who should be back in a week or two. They won 0-3 at Atalanta in November, and played 2-2 at AC Milan in mid-December, but they have only 1 win in last 8 rounds and fell to an easy 0-3 defeat to Juventus a few days ago. At the moment, Sassuolo doesn't look like the Sassuolo we know and love, but as a relegation candidate through and through. This team is 11th so we could be witnessing a classic mid-table slump, as nothing matters, can't go up or down too much regardless of the effort you put in, so you put in no effort at all.
Probable Lineups
Roma (3-4-2-1): Svilar - Ghilardi, Hermoso, Mancini - Rensch, Cristante, Kone, Wesley - Pellegrini, Soule - Ferguson. Coach Gasperini.
Sassuolo (4-3-3): Muric - Walukiewicz, Idzes, Muharemovic, Doig - Thorstvedt, Matic, Kone - Fadere, Pinamonti, Lauriente. Coach Grosso.
Sassuolo is still without Domenico Berardi.
The Betting Market
We get 1.57 on Roma, which is understandable, and a somewhat surprising 2.05 on Both Teams To Score: YES and equally surprising 1.80 on Under 2.5 Goals.
Obviously, the bookmakers think Roma will control this game and make it a win-to-nil instead of the usual goal fest that ensues when these two sides meet. There's value in BTTS-Yes for 2.05 and on Over 2.5 Goals for 2.00.
Roma has the second-worst BTTS-Yes percentage in the league at 26%. Lazio is the worst at 21%. Sassuolo isn't as high as you might think, they're at only 53%.
The Betting Verdict
Sassuolo is certainly a tricky opponent and everyone in Italy knows it by now, and so do the punters worldwide with their long list of ruined bets on favourites for many years now. Sassuolo is here longer than you think, from 2013/14, and they only actually spent one season in Serie B, 2024/25. Sassuolo's best league finish in Serie A was in 205/16 when they finished 6th.
Roma felt Sassuolo's offensive football just like everyone else -- they lost here 3-4 in 2023 but generally did well with five wins and five draws in 11 meetings since 2013. It was almost always a goal fest too, with only two games not seeing goals on both ends.
This long introduction will have a very simple conclusion as we have to factor in the unwritten rule of Serie A that is: Roma wins at home. We usually also get some tasty odds as Roma is seen as unreliable, definitely not in the same league as Inter or Napoli, so it's usually around 1.60. And you should always take it.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Roma 1-0 Sassuolo
