Tennis
2025-11-15 - Carlos Alcaraz vs Felix Auger-Aliassime
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
Tennis: ATP Finals- Semi Final
Saturday 15th November 2025 - Scheduled 8:30pm
7:30pm (British Time)
Preview
After losing to Jannik Sinner and looking like he was suffering with some sort of calf injury, Felix Auger-Aliassime has performed really well to win back to back Group matches.
The battling display against Ben Shelton deserves a lot more respect than the win over Alexander Zverev merely because the American pushed Felix Auger-Aliassime really hard. This may have cracked lesser players, but the Canadian has continued producing at key times in the second half of the season and Auger-Aliassime is going to head into 2026 with a lot of confidence.
Everything in this Semi Final is about the Felix Auger-Aliassime serve as he bids to upset the World Number 1.
It has been a big weapon in the wins over Ben Shelton and Alexander Zverev, but Felix Auger-Aliassime struggled to impose himself on Jannik Sinner in the opening Group match. He may have learned from that, but Auger-Aliassime has not faced Carlos Alcaraz in sixteen months and the Spaniard is playing at a really solid level himself to secure that position heading into the 2026 season.
Three matches played and three wins on the board has given Carlos Alcaraz momentum as he looks to go forward and win the ATP Finals for the first time to continue to add to his increasing trophy collection.
Despite already being through to the Semi Final, Carlos Alcaraz produced his best performance in the tournament in the win over Lorenzo Musetti on Thursday. That will further the momentum he has built up in the tournament and Alcaraz has to be pretty confident that much of this match will be played on his racquet, even when facing a very good server like Felix Auger-Aliassime.
There are just more ways for Carlos Alcaraz to win the match.
Covering the spread will not be easy and the World Number 1 may need to break serve at least three times to do that, but he has reached that total in all three of the matches played this week. The performance in the win over Taylor Fritz will give Carlos Alcaraz the confidence to deal with the World Number 8 and he has won each of the last four matches between the players.
We have seen Felix Auger-Aliassime produce high quality tennis when he has momentum and built up confidence- he is dangerous here having done that in back to back wins to join Jannik Sinner in the last four, but Carlos Alcaraz is a big challenge for the Canadian and that may show up on the final scoreboard.
Prediction
Lay the games with the World Number 1.
The Pick :
Carlos Alcaraz 2-0 Felix Auger-Aliassime
