Tennis
2026-01-23 - Carlos Alcaraz vs Corentin Moutet
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
Tennis : Australian Open Third Round
Friday 23rd January 2025 - Scheduled 11am
12am (British Time)
Preview
The top two players on the ATP Tour look clear of the World Number 3 and beyond and so it is no surprise that Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz are asked to cover some very big lines early in the Grand Slam events.
It is tough to do that, especially at the lines set for those players, but this one has come in slightly as we move into the Third Round.
In the previous two Rounds, Carlos Alcaraz has dismissed the World Number 81 and 102, but this time the competition is expected to be more challenging when taking on Corentin Moutet, the current World Number 37. A strong run through the first quarter of the season would put the Frenchman in a position to be Seeded when the French Open comes around in May, and he will be trending back towards the top 30 of the World Rankings at the end of this tournament.
Of course, upsetting the World Number 1 and top Seed in the tournament would really open things up for Moutet and everyone in the top half of the draw, but that feels like a tall task.
As much as you do want to give credit to Moutet for getting everything out of his career, this is a big talent gap to bridge and it is hard to imagine the lower Ranked player having the weapons needed to upset Carlos Alcaraz.
He plays with style and flair, as many would expect from a French player, but Corentin Moutet has a vulnerable serve and that will put a lot of pressure on him throughout this contest. It feels important to note that Moutet has played five top 20 Ranked opponents in Grand Slams on the hard courts, but he has lost every one of those matches and struggled to have a telling impact on the serve.
In 2025, Corentin Moutet won around 61% of service points played in hard court matches, but he will not have come up against someone of the quality of Carlos Alcaraz too many times.
When only considering matches against top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts over the last twelve months, Corentin Moutet's service percentage points won dips to 57% and this should be a relatively comfortable match up for the top Seed.
We have yet to really see Carlos Alcaraz anywhere near his best and all eyes have been on the Spaniard to see how he has reacted to an unexpected decision to part ways with Coach Juan Carlos Ferrero. The reality is that the Spaniard has not really been forced to work too hard and he has won by eight game margins in both of the opening matches played in Melbourne without having to break much of a sweat.
This has been the weakest of the Grand Slams for Carlos Alcaraz so far in his career, which may also be a factor with early nerves, but the two wins should begin to build momentum.
As long as he continues to serve as well as he has, Carlos Alcaraz should be able to keep a lid on the threat from the other side of the court.
In his career, Carlos Alcaraz is 32-2 in Grand Slam matches on the hard courts against players Ranked outside of the top 20 and his numbers have been really impressive. This feels like an opportunity to produce his best effort in Melbourne in 2026 and Carlos Alcaraz may have the return game to cover this big line.
Prediction
Lay the games with the World Number 1 with the expectation being that Carlos Alcaraz is going to be picking up his level as the tournament moves forward.
The Pick :
Carlos Alcaraz 3-0 Corentin Moutet
