Paraguay v Argentina
Football: FIFA World Cup 2010
South America (Conmebol) Qualifiers
Wednesday 9th September 2009
Kickoff 19:00 local - 24:00 GMT

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Paraguay (3rd) Home : 6-0-1 12:3

Paraguay's 1-0 win over Bolivia on Saturday was not their finest performance, but it was an effective performance, and wrapped up their sixth win in seven home qualifying games so far.

Paraguay are not world-beaters, but they are efficient at home, and Paraguay did beat Brazil 2-0 here last year in qualifying underlining the fact that "La Albiroja" can win against any opposition.

Paraguay Team News :
Borussia Dortmund striker Nelson Haedo Valdez is in doubt for the match after he left the field with 15 minutes remaining in the Bolivia match after injuring his right knee.

Argentina (4th) Away : 1-2-4 5:12

I know that Argentina want to win, even need to win, but that's been the case since the 1-6 thrashing by Bolivia in April and Argentina have followed that up with losses in Ecuador (0-2) and then at home to Brazil (1-3).

Coach Diego Maradona is quoted as remaining "calm" on the FIFA.com website, but some of the squad changes being talked about seem panicked to me with aging Martin Palermo being brought in.

The Betting Verdict

The odds for this game are just wrong - pure and simple.

Argentina have been NEEDING to win for three games now, and they are facing a very tough trip to the Defensores del Chaco stadium in Asuncion.

Paraguay's home record in the last three world cup qualifying campaigns are 7-1-1 in 2002, 6-2-1 in 2006, and 6-0-1 so far for 2010.

That's 19-3-3 at home for Paraguay overall, and I can get them at a price of 3.20+ ! That's an incredible price and I'm on it!

The Statistics :

The Pick :

Paraguay 2-0 Argentina

PERCENTAGE ESTIMATE :

Paraguay 50% - Draw 30% - Argentina 20%

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

Take PARAGUAY to win at a great price.

HANDICAP BETTING :

Or take PARAGUAY with +1/4 goal handicap start.