Czech Republic v Northern Ireland
Football: FIFA World Cup 2010 European Qualifiers (UEFA)
Wednesday, 14th October 2009 - Kickoff 19:30

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It's always a bit of a minefield at the end of a qualifying campaign when teams no longer have a competitive reason to win but there are still a couple of games worth looking at - this is one of them.

Czech Republic (3rd) 4-3-2 17:6

The Czech Republic scored a good 2-0 win over Poland on Saturday, but were undone by Slovenia's 2-0 win over group leaders Slovakia and now seem unlikely to qualify for the playoffs.

The Czech Republic need to win this final game to have a chance, but then also need little San Marino to cause an upset by taking a point at home to Slovenia.

While that seems extremely unlikely as San Marino have lost all 9 games so far, and usually lose by 2+ goals, I give that upset a 10% chance - and so there is still faint hope.

Throw in the fact that the Czech Republic are playing at home, and so will have good crowd behind them, and the fact that Tomas Rosicky is involved again and I make a home win a strong possibility.

Northern Ireland (4th) 4-2-3 13:9

Northern Ireland can technically qualify, but it would need a San Marino victory, and a lot of goals here, and so instead the team are thinking of aiming for 3rd place - as it will earn ranking points for a potentially better seeding in the next international qualification rounds for Euro 2012.

Unfortunately, that ideal has not been grasped by a lot of the squad, and Northern Ireland have been hit by a large number of withdrawals Manchester United's Jonny Evans the latest to pull out this week with an ankle injury.

Recent form for Northern Ireland has been quite good, wih home wins over Poland (3-2) and Slovenia (1-0) and a hard fought 1-1 draw in Poland.

However, the 0-2 home loss to Slovakia a month ago in Belfast ended the dream of qualification, and this game feels like the last rites.

THe Betting Verdict

Northern Ireland have put in a number of good efforts inh this campaign, including a 0-0 draw with the Czech side in the reverse fixture, but the best results have come at home in Belfast.

I have the Czech Republic as solid two goal favourites for this match, and even though the result is unlikely to matter - I expect the home side to go out and get the win.

I'd expected a price of around 1/3 (1.33) and so will take this bet at the top price of 1.40 at Interwetten.

The Statistics :

The Pick :

Czech Republic 2-0 Northern Ireland

PERCENTAGE ESTIMATE :

Czech Republic 75% - Draw 19% - Northern Ireland 6%

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

Take the CZECH REPUBLIC to win.