Slovenia v Russia
Football: FIFA World Cup 2010 European (UEFA) Qualifiers
Wednesday 18th November 2009 - Kickoff 19:45

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Slovenia - Home : 4-1-0 12:1

What a difference that late goal in Russia makes - now Slovenia come into this game with renewed hope - only 1-2 down - and know that a 1-0 win would be enough to secure a place in South Africa.

Slovenia's home record has been impressive during the qualifying campaign with four wins and a draw, and only one goal conceded.

The games against Slovakia (W 2-1), Czech Republic (D 0-0) and Poland (W 3-0) are good markers for for this match against Russia as I rate all three opponents of simialr strength.

Russia - Away : 3-1-1 9:4

The Russian bear is playing good football under Dutch manager Guus Hiddink's direction, even on the road, with the wins over Wales (W 3-1), and Finland (W 3-0) demonstrating an ability to score goals.

The home and away losses to Germany though were less impressive, and sealed Russia's fate to a playoff berth, rather than direct qualification.

Arsenal player Andrei Arshavin appears to be the man pulling most of the strings for Russia, and if he is in the mood for goals then the visitors may coast through.

THe Betting Verdict

The perceived wisdom out there is that Russia are too good to fail, too strong in attack and will progress to the finals.

That might be true, but there is something strong in this Slovenia side too, and that late away goal has rebalanced the tie on a knife-edge.

I give a slight edge to the home side now - allowing for the venue and great record in the Maribor stadium - and like the look of that price.

The Statistics :

The Pick :

Slovenia 1-0 Russia (or 1-1)

PERCENTAGE ESTIMATE :

Slovenia 37% - Draw 33% - Russia 30%

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

It's a roughie but I'll take SLOVENIA TO WIN