TOLEDO @ AIR FORCE
American Football : North America : NCAAF
Wednesday, December 28th, 2011, 4:30PM US
(9:30PM GMT)

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PREVIEW

Air Force will play a school record 5th consecutive Bowl Game today as they take on the Toledo Rockets. The Falcons are set as 3.5 point underdogs for this Bowl game, to be played in Washington DC.

Toledo have a 8-4 regular season record coming into this, and actually won 7 of their last 8 matches, including 3 straight. However, they have had a blow in the departure of their coach. Tim Beckman left the Rockets in early December to move to Illinois. In his place comes offensive co-ordinator Matt Campbell, who is just 32 years old. This is not a good thing mentally for a team playing a bowl game against a highly motivated and tough opponent.

Air Force will have their coach with them, and what a coach he has been. Troy Calhoun has ed this side to their 5th straight bowl game, and their 7-5 regular season record is only just inferior to their opponents. They have a huge weapon in this match, QB Tim Jefferson.

Jefferson has 28 wins as QB of Air Force, a school record. He doesn't have to pass much as Air Force boast the 2nd best rushing attack in the country, but make no mistake, he can throw. Jefferson completed 61% of his passes for 1,478 yards, 12 TDs and just 6 picks. So good was this teams attack, they only lost by a 37-26 score away at Boise State, who score at will and boast a cracking defence.

Air Force comes in playing well in Bowl Games, winning their last 2 appearances. Last year, in the Independence Bowl, Air Force scored a very impressive 14-7 win over Georgia Tech, displaying some dominant defence. With that in mind, I will turn your attention to the Total for this game, which is posted at 71 and looks too high to me.

Now we know Air Force will be able to run the ball on Toledo. What I find encouraging is Toledos poor defending through the air, where they rank 109th nationally, giving up almost 280 yards per game. Jefferson may well get the chance to throw a few big ones that end up in the end zone.

BETTING VERDICT

Did I mention Jefferson also has 10 rushing TDs? Yeah, this boy does it all. Toledo may well get rolled over outright. With an extra 3.5 points, I'm in.

The Pick :

Air Force +3.5

HANDICAP BETTING :

Take Air Force +3.5 @ 1.98 (Pinnacle)