German Bundesliga
2026-04-04 - SC Freiburg vs Bayern Munich
A Sports Betting Pick by Niko
Football; Germany: Bundesliga
Europa Park Stadion – Freiburg
Saturday, 04th April 2026 - kickoff 15:30 CET
SC Freiburg
SC Freiburg recently secured their place in the Europa League quarterfinals, but went on winless in three Bundesliga games. In their last game before the break, they came back from a goal down to win 1-2 at St.Pauli.
SC Freiburg are now 9 points behind the sixth place, which leads to Europe, but Eintracht Frankfurt is only a point above them in seventh.
There’s still a lot to play for, and I expect SC Freiburg to push a bit harder in their remaining seven matches, especially at home.
We should not forget that SC Freiburg are one of the better home teams in the Bundesliga, unbeaten in 11 of 13 games (7 wins) and losing just twice.
Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich demolished Union Berlin 4-0 in their last match, recording their sixth win in the last seven Bundesliga games. They have a comfortable 9-point advantage over Borussia Dortmund in second, and it’s only a matter of time before they formally secure the title.
For this match, there is a small concern over Harry Kane. He did not play in England's 0-1 friendly defeat to Japan last Tuesday after complaining of an injury in training. Perhaps coach Tuchel did not want to risk him there, and maybe coach Kompany will not risk him here from the start either.
Bayern Munich have enough offensive power, and both Michael Olise and Luis Diaz played superbly in the recent internationals.
The Betting Verdict
SC Freiburg are no pushovers, especially at home, where they play more offensively, more comfortably. They lost five of the last six against the Bavarians, including a heavy 6-2 defeat in their earlier duel this season.
Bayern Munich should win here, but the odds for both teams scoring are much better, as I expect SC Freiburg to score at least once here.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
SC Freiburg 1-2 Bayern Munich
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take both teams to score: YES at odds of 1.62 at BetFred
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
This bet is a "distraction" bet - as mighty Bayern Munich go visiting Freiburg on Saturday afternoon with a nine point lead in the Bundesliga - so who would oppose them?
Well ... me. I feel that their upcoming UCL fixture with Real Madrid will be looming, the team selection will show mixed focus, and after 10 days of international football the club system might not be so smooth.
There is also the fact the Freiburg are 7-4-2 at home this season, drew with Leverkusen here recently, and have surprised with a couple of draws in the last six times this fixture has been played in Freiburg's Europa-Park Stadion.
I make a draw about 25% likely, so when I see prices of 5.50 around for this one to finish level I know that it's a bet that I want to take.
Bayern Munich could make me look stupid here - they beat Freiburg 6-2 in Munich earlier in the season, but the scheduling of this fixture afte an international break and before a UCL quarter-final just smacks of "distraction".
Take : DRAW at 5.50 - prices are already dropping just 5.25 at Bet365 now.
Well ... me. I feel that their upcoming UCL fixture with Real Madrid will be looming, the team selection will show mixed focus, and after 10 days of international football the club system might not be so smooth.
There is also the fact the Freiburg are 7-4-2 at home this season, drew with Leverkusen here recently, and have surprised with a couple of draws in the last six times this fixture has been played in Freiburg's Europa-Park Stadion.
I make a draw about 25% likely, so when I see prices of 5.50 around for this one to finish level I know that it's a bet that I want to take.
Bayern Munich could make me look stupid here - they beat Freiburg 6-2 in Munich earlier in the season, but the scheduling of this fixture afte an international break and before a UCL quarter-final just smacks of "distraction".
Take : DRAW at 5.50 - prices are already dropping just 5.25 at Bet365 now.
