Icelandic Football
2011-06-30 - Keflavik vs Valur
A Sports Betting Pick by Cornholio
Football : Iceland : Top league - Round 7
Thursday June 30 2011, 19:15 (GMT)
This game was postponed in round seven due to national team obligations of Valur's two Faroe Islands players. Since then each side has played two games, one in the Cup and one in the league. Valur lost their cup game while Keflavik won theirs but Keflavik lost their league game while Valur won theirs.
Will Keflavik turn their bad run around or will Valur continue their battle in the top flight?
Keflavik
After a good start where Keflavik went without a loss in the first four rounds collecting 8 points everything has gone down for them and they have lost the last three games in the league and now sit in 8th place with 8 points. They had a consolation in the final 16 in the Cup where they beat League one, Haukar, 1-3.
In the league they have only scored 2 goals in last three games after scoring 8 in the first four. Also they are conceding much more, 6 goals in last three compared to 4 goals in the first four games.
Keflavik's offense has been critisised lately stating that there is no creativity up front. They tend to sit back (still averageing in conceding 2 goals per match in last three) kicking the ball towards their main striker, Gudmundur Steinarsson, hoping that he will produce something. Trouble is that if he doesn't (and it's quite hard for him to do so without any help at all) nothing happens.
Keflavik's overall record is 2-2-3 being similar at home and away, 1-1-1 5:5 and 1-1-2 5:5 respectively. If we look at their overall league season they have scored in all but one game but they have also only once kept a clean sheet.
If Keflavik aren't to join the relegation battle they need to change from their predicteable offensive play and tighten their defense. This could be difficult against Valur but, on the other hand, they might be able to take advantage of Valur's slow defense.
Valur
The thing that has driven Valur in last few game is their fighting spirits. You can see examples of this against Fram where they scored the winning goal in the 86th minute and against Vikingur in the 90th minute. Also you can look at their cup game against IBV where they went 0-3 down after 30 minutes but they didn't give up at all and brought it to 2-3 before the final whistle.
Valur currently sits in 3rd place with 15 points, only 5 behind leaders, KR, and with this game in hand. Their record is 5 0 2, 9:4, so you can see that their defense is quite strong allthough it's very slow. This can been seen in the few goals they have produced as they aren't able to pressure their opponents high up on the pitch.
It's noticeable that of Valur's five wins four have been to nil and five of their seven games in total have been under 2.5 goals. Valur have kept a clean sheet in four of their seven games so beforehand they must be pretty confident going up against a weak Keflavik's offense.
Valur will be without their main goalkeeper, Haraldur Bjornsson, since he was sent off against Vikingur. After he was sent off they really had a hard time producing anything and were lucky to get all three points after Vikingur got the lead in the 80th minute. Even though they won, the team was critisised and once again their strikers, at least Hordur Sveinsson, were heavily critisised for bad performance.
If Valur is to stay in the top battle their scoring must get better with their strikers performing at least on par. But, more imortantly, their slow defense needs to get fixed (they won't be conceding so few goals all through the season), because if their attack is to get any sharpter the defense needs to be able to move higher up than they have been doing.
Head to head
2010: Keflavik - Valur 3-1
2010: Valur - Keflavik 0-2
2009: Valur - Keflavik 2-2
2009: Keflavik - Valur 3-0
2008: Valur - Keflavik 1-1
2008: Keflavik - Valur 5-3
2008: Valur - Keflavik 2-0 (Pre-season Cup neutral grounds)
2007: Keflavik - Valur 1-3
2007: Valur - Keflavik 2-2
2007: Valur - Keflavik 3-1 (Pre-season cup neutral grounds)
2006: Keflavik - Valur 1-1
2006: Valur - Keflavik 0-0
The Betting Verdict
This game is hard to assess. Although Keflavik is losing their games they are scoring in them but Valur's defense is strong. On the other hand, Valur tend to win their games narrowly trusting no their patience. With Keflavik's defense looking a bit off the mark Valur's strikers should use this game to finally get on track.
It's interesting to see that Valur haven't won Keflavik since 2008 and they have only beaten them once in the league over the last 5 years.
I don't normally recommend the draw but since this game is so close and hard to conclude anything solid, and the fact that there have been some draws in these clashes in recent years I would rather back the draw than to pick either side. Also, I think we might still get an under 2.5 game from Valur.
BEST BETTING TIP :
Main bet :Consider the Draw @ 3.40 (Ladbrokes)
Side bet :
I think the bookies got this wrong as the Under 2.5 Goals is on offer at a nice 2.0 (Bet365)
