English Premier
2011-12-18 - Aston Villa vs Liverpool
A Sports Betting Pick by Lamps
Football : England : Premiership
Sunday 18th December - Kickoff 2:05pm
Aston Villa
Despite winning at the weekend, Villa remain in 9th place and really are a hard side to predict at the moment. McLeish for all the stick the pundits including myself have given him over the past few weeks is doing a good job at Villa even if it's not pretty on the eye. This weekend they host Liverpool in a top 10 clash that looks a very close one to call.
Before winning at Bolton (1-2) at the weekend, Villa had lost 2 of their last 3 and were starting to stutter as McLeish's negative style of play was getting them nowhere.
However, at Bolton he decided to attack and Villa played well for long spells in the game. The problem is I'm not sure how attacking they will be on Sunday with him likely to employ a not to lose mentality as Villa did against United here last month.
In that United game they actually lost (0-1) and it was a horrible game to watch with virtually nothing happening all game. In their other defeat at home to West Brom (1-2), Villa could consider themselves unlucky having had a man sent off in that one. With just 2 defeats at home we can see that regardless of the mentality going forward this is a tough stadium to visit and claim all 3 points.
When looking at the Villa home wins, Blackburn (3-1), Wigan (2-0) and Norwich (3-2) we can see that 2 of those sides are in the bottom 3 and Norwich are Premiership newcomers. Wins are wins but Liverpool will be a much tougher nut to crack and I don't fancy Villa to have enough about them to claim all 3 points here on Sunday.
Villa Team News
Baker, Beye, Gardner, Given, Lichaj, Lowry and Agbonlahor miss this out this weekend. The loss of Given and Agbonlahor are big with the striker having an excellent season both in terms of build up play and chipping in with a few goals as well.
Given on the other hand at times has single handily kept Villa in games in particular against Fulham where he was sensational. Guzan, is an ok replacement but nowhere near to Given's level.
Going forward Bent will have Heskey next to him which is hardly an intimidating partnership. In the middle of the park, Albrighton and Bannan will play out wide with Petrov and Herd starting in the middle.
The good news is that the back 4 is settled with Hutton, Dunne, Collins and Warnock all very reliable and will certainly keep Suarez and Kuty honest for the most part of this game.
Liverpool
Following the win at home to QPR, the Reds are now up to 6th in the table. With 26 points on the board, Pool trail 4th placed Tottenham by 5 points having played an extra game than the North Londoners. With a tricky game at Villa, Liverpool really need to keep winning and whilst it's not "must win", they definitely can't afford to lose this one.
The Reds have been up and down this season with them really struggling at home. I say struggling, they are unbeaten but only rank 8th in the league overall when last season for the same period they ranked 3rd.
The good news is that away from home they rank 5th compared to 17th last year and have already picked up good wins at Chelsea (1-2), Everton (0-2) and Arsenal (0-2). Having won at these tough grounds they shouldn't fear the trip to Villa Park this Sunday afternoon.
Interestingly they have yet to draw away from home having suffered 3 defeats at Stoke (1-0), Tottenham (4-0) and Fulham (1-0). To be fair to the Reds, they haven't had many easy away games this year facing mostly sides that are playing in Europe this season.
Normally quite a free scoring side, Liverpool has struggled this year with goals having only scored 2 or more in 6 of their 15 games this season. On the road specifically, they have scored 2 or more in 3 of their last 4 away games and in the defeat at Fulham they hit the post twice. I think at Villa they still create chances and now that Suarez has finally got a goal he will be very confident of adding another this weekend.
Liverpool Team News
Doni, Gerrard, Lucas, Robinson miss out through injury whilst Spearing is still suspended for Sunday's game. Suarez will start up top most likely with Kuyt next to him with Downing and Maxi on either wing.
In the middle of the park Adam and Henderson will be competing against Villa's 3 man midfield. The back 5 is settled and looks quite solid with Reina, Johnson, Skrtel, Agger and Johnson.
The Betting Verdict
8 out of the last 9 at Villa Park have ended in Unders with mixed results not favouring any team in particular.
It's no surprise to see Unders priced at 1.75 in this one and it certainly appeals given the McLeish mentality and that Liverpool only has 1 goal in their last 2 games.
However, I won't be on the unders as Liverpool has scored at least 2 in 3 of their last 4 away games and given that they have won at Chelsea, Arsenal and Everton this year they certainly can grab a few goals against Villa on Sunday.
The away win was appealing until I saw the price, evens is a joke and now way can anyone back the Reds at this price. Instead I will take a wee punt on Liverpool grabbing a couple of goals which will mean a 1 goal victory for the Reds.
In the last 8 Villa games, they have just 1 clean sheet whilst Liverpool has scored at least 1 goal in 4 of their last 5 against Villa. With the European handicap of -1, I think Liverpool will just edge out Villa and win by 1 goal margin. Narrow away win.
Good Luck
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Aston Villa 1-2 Liverpool
