GREEK LEAGUE BETTING PICK - PANATHINAOKOS V EGALEO

Greek League

2007-01-07 - Panathinaokos vs Egaleo

A Sports Betting Pick by Egaleo_City

PAO have a golden chance to catch AEK in the secon position but it's possible that the 20-day break has taken its toll on them plus Egaleo is always a hard to break nut.

PANATHINAIKOS

It has been a rather stressful season until now for Panathinaikos. They made a bad start with coach Bakke, hired Munoz after him ; with the Spaniard on the bench the team played attractive and attacking ball but they ended the first round with bad results and most importantly bad football.

The fans demand things to get better as soon as possible showing no patience.

For this match PAO have serious problems in their squad, they will miss no less than 7 players. Defenders Vyntra, Goumas, Nilsson, Kotsios and Darlas will be missing and also left full back Seric will face a late fitness test, if unable to play he 'll be substituted with attacking midfielder (!) Leontiou. The backbone of the attacking line, Papadopoulos will be also absent as well as long term injury listed creative midfielder Gonzalez.

Main central duo will be Biscan and Antonson, the first has clearly shown he can't play well there while the second has been a real disappointment until now.

EGALEO

Egaleo after a dream start that led as high as the third place made a dreadful streak of 6 games with only one point ruining everything. Now an optimist may say they share the high end of the table with 19 points along with Atromitos, Xanthi and Kerkyra and a pessimist may say they lie only 4 points above the relegation zone, both will be right.

New signed loan goalkeeper Giannou will defend Egaleo's goal. He is an Olympiacos keeper, not playing much but has showed good skill when he was picked to play in really hard matches.

Main striker Agritis will be missing and that is a blow because he could give a hard time to PAO emergency defense. Regular defender Psomas will be also missing.

FIRST ROUND MATCH

In the match of the first round Egaleo was humiliated at home from PAO with an ashaming 1-4 defeat. But that was really not the true image of the game. PAO took 0-2 lead late in the first half with two consecutive errors of the defense. In the second half Egaleo fought really hard and clawed one back after missing a penalty. It was only the class of newly signed Salpingidis with a great amount of luck also that led to 1-4.

HEAD TO HEAD

Since Egaleo returned to the major league they have given PAO a had time in some occasions including a qualification in the cup in a double match. From past results no clear trend can be found regarding overs or unders, but past results indicate an easy home win.

Panathinaikos:Egaleo 4:0 30.04.2006
Egaleo:Panathinaikos 0:2 18.12.2005

Egaleo:Panathinaikos 0:1 20.02.2005
Panathinaikos:Egaleo 0:0 16.10.2004

Panathinaikos:Egaleo 2:0 29.02.2004
Egaleo:Panathinaikos 2:1 18.10.2003

Panathinaikos:Egaleo 3:0 16.03.2003
Egaleo:Panathinaikos 0:0 24.11.2002

Egaleo:Panathinaikos 1:4 14.04.2002
Panathinaikos:Egaleo 2:1 13.01.2002

Greek Cup
Egaleo:Panathinaikos 1:1 05.03.2003
Panathinaikos:Egaleo 0:1 05.02.2003

VERDICT

I think the bookies have seriously overrated PAO for this game. They were really bad before holiday break and they have serious problems in the defense.

Egaleo have a goal average of 1 goal per match so i believe they will score today as well. To all the above add the fact that a 20-day break does affect players a lot.

Still the game is a must win situation for PAO as AEK lost yesterday and they have a chance to catch them in the second place tonight.

The only thing that makes me double think about going against PAO is the inability (and some times even unwillingness) of Egaleo to play to their full potential against the big teams.

I think that it will be a very difficult evening for PAO and it is great value to LAY PAO at 1.21 currently at Betfair. I rate it about 70% possible that there will be a good oportunity to lay your bet (whether Egaleo score first, equalise later or hold a 0-0 draw).

I am not totally positive that Egaleo will finally get a result from this match so i don't suggest the risky X2 double chance (although it's priced at a very tasty 4.5 and above), but the +1.75 ball to Egaleo is priced at 1.826 at pinnacle and it's rather fair.

BEST BETTING TIP :

LAY PAO at 1.21 and be prebared to cover your bet in-play