AFL Aussie Rules
2018-07-21 - Brisbane Lions vs Adelaide Crows
A Sports Betting Pick by Shady
AFL AUSSIE RULES : Round 18
Venue : The Gabba
21st July 2018, 7.25PM AEST
Overview :
Brisbane Lions are 16th on the ladder, winning 3 games on the bounce. The last time they won 4 games was back in 2010. The Lions have looked like a different team in the three wins against Fremantle Carlton and Hawthorn.
The Lions are arguably in their best form in the past few years putting together a string of good performance and more importantly securing big wins but unfortunately will have to come up against a rejuvenated Adelaide Crows.
As for the Adelaide Crows, they are sitting just outside the top 8 on 11th spot and only managed 2 wins from their last 5. The two wins however have come against top 8 sides in West Coast Eagles and Geelong Cats.
Adelaide was superb last week in the win against Geelong and the presences of Rory Laird and Rory Atkins in the lineup just gives the Crows the much-needed run from half back. Without Laird and Atkins, the Crows found it hard to move the ball but with them in the lineup, the ball movement was breathtaking.
With injuries and a couple of poor displays, morale was probably low at the Adelaide camp and to make things worse there was rumors that Sloane might walk away in the same manner Dangerfield did a couple of years ago. Now with Rory Sloane agreeing to a contract extension, it has somehow in my view given the Crows team a much-needed boost in morale.
Despite all talks are on number 1 draft pick Cam Rayner, the key player for Lions will be Eric Hipwood up front. After kicking only 14 goals in 11 games to start the season, Eric Hipwood has managed to kick 16 goals in his last 5 games. Hipwood has found form in recent weeks following an inconsistent start to the season and his improvement in front of goal has a direct relationship with the recent Lions result.
With Dayne Beams and Dayne Zorko having a massive impact in recent games, Sam Jacobs will need to be at his best against Stefan Martin. If Martin dominates the ruck it will make Beams and Zorko much easier around the middle. If Jacobs can make it an even contest in the ruck, Crouch and Sloane are more than capable in stopping in form Beams and Zorko.
The Betting Verdict :
At the start of the season, you will laugh if anybody had told you that the Brisbane Lions can win 3 in a row. The Lions have somehow done so, and they have impressed me in the past 3 weeks. That three wins on the bounce, together with some poor performance from the Crows have somehow got punters a little off balance.
Brisbane Lions are heading the right direction and I believe they will climb further up the ladder next season but to think that they will be able to stop a rejuvenated Adelaide Crows, who are fighting for finals football is absurd.
Weather is expected to be good at the Gabba for Saturday night football and we could well see a high scoring game with both teams in relatively good form. The Lions is playing for the future – a solid finish to the season and one or two veteran addition would see the Lions finish midtable or possibly sneak in the top 8 next season. As for the Crows, their season is on the line. They can ill-afford any more slip-up if they wish to play finals football.
It will take the Lion’s best performance to beat off a lackluster Crows. I think an average Crows performance would see them just crossing the line but if the Crows come and play their best – like they did against Geelong, the Crows win by a big margin.
If the Crows can bring the exact same pressure and ball movement as they did against the Cats at Adelaide Oval last week, then I believe the Crows will win by 40++ points. As the Crows are without skipper Tex Walker and are just getting back players from injury and starting to improve on their form I’d quite comfortably back the Crows on the line.
The Pick :
Crows by 28 points
